Hey, welcome to the first ever post of The Fight Table, the place where I give betting tips on MMA and other combat sports.
All betting odds based on return per euro, so €1.33 means that for every one euro you bet, you get a total of one euro and thirty three cent back, i.e., you get €0.33 in winnings.
UFC 96 Main Card
Gray 'The Bully' Maynard vs Jim Miller
(155lb/70kg)
Gray Maynard (6-0-0-1)
+Superb wrestling
+Great cardio
+Improving at a fast rate
+Knowledge of submission defense
-Unreliable striking combinations
-No finishing ability displayed as of yet
Notable wins:
Frank Edgar
Rich Clementi
Jim Miller (13-1)
+Strong submissions off of back
+Aggressive grappling from top position
-Average stand up
Notable wins:
David Baron
Matt Wiman
Analysis:
Much like Koscheck and Evans in 2008, Maynard has been labelled as a lay and preyer. Someone with no real offensive skill and who relies on top position to win fights for him. For someone with only six fights, I don't think it's too bad a thing; Rashad was 16-0 before he finally gave us a KO (a KO so good that it wiped out any memory of lay and prey). Likewise, Koscheck, didn't show good standup until perhaps the last year, culminating with his brutal KO of Yoshiyuki Yoshida.
Maynard was once in contention for the 2004 US olympic team - but falling short - so his wrestling credentials are up there with both of the aforementioned men. Jim Miller will likely spend most of this bout on his back, searching for armbars, triangles and sweeps. And with nine of his thirteen wins coming by sub, it might not be such a bad thing for him.
While Maynard may have a great wrestling background, whether or not he has the sub defense of a Sean Sherk or a Mitsuhiro Ishida remains to be seen, and in fact, his loss by guillotine to Nate Diaz in TUF 5 may suggest against that, but from his last few fights, he seems to put himself in danger very little.
My Take:
Smart money's on Maynard grinding out the decision win that will likely earn some boos. Look for his GnP to improve. But since his odds are along the lines of €1.50, Miller might be a better take, at €2.38.
Matt 'The Immortal' Brown vs Pete 'Drago' Sell
(170lb/77kg)
Matt Brown (8-7-0)
+Has some power in hands
+Has heart
+Aggressive
+Improved sub knowledge
+Decent scramble
+Never been KO'd
-Blue belt in Jiu Jitsu
-Zero high quality wins
Pete Sell (8-4-0)
+Sound standup
+Durable
+Good power
+Submission game
-Has lost against all top competition
-Has not knocked out anyone
Analysis:
This appears to be a pick 'em fight. Pete Sell appears to have the cleaner striking, yet he has never KO'd anyone before, and in fact, has been (T)KO'd several times, twice by Nate Quarry, and once by Scott Smith. But they were pretty solid blows that put him down.
His ground game was good enough to avoid the subs of the next Middleweight contender Thales Leites for three rounds, which means that if he plays it smart, he'll be able to give Brown plenty of trouble.
However, Brown's submission win over Ryan Thomas and his impressive scrambling against Dong Hyun Kim could make this a stand up affair. I'm not sure who that would benefit the most; Matt Brown has never been KO'd, and has been known for his heart and has KO's on his record. Mind you, they, like his sub wins, were against low level opposition.
My Take:
I think Sell should have the advantages here; he has sharper striking and does have power despite not having KO's. Add this to his more complete game, and I think Drago should take this, possibly by TKO.
But, with Brown's durability and aggressiveness, any blow could change the game, and this isn't something I'll be placing money on. The odds are practically even, with Sell slight favourite at €1.80, and Brown at €1.95.
Matt 'The Hammer' Hamill vs Mark 'The Philippine Wrcking Machine' Munoz
(205lb/93kg)
Matt Hamill (5-2-0)
+Good wrestler
+Good Striker
+Powerful punches
-Not a superbly crisp striker
-Easy to hit
-Not a lot of experience
Mark Munoz (5-0-0)
+Very good wrestler
+Good striking
-Has not faced top competition
Analysis:
This is a tough one to call. We know Hamill was a Division III wrestler, while Munoz was Division I, so the wrestling advantage will go to Munoz on paper. However, their wrestling is probably at a close enough level that Hamill may be able to sprawl any of Munoz' shots and force the standup.
In the standup I think I would give the advantage to Hamill; he got the better of the striking exchanges with Bisping and hung in there with Franklin until the liver kick TKO.
If Munoz can get top position and control Hamill on the ground, he could easily score a TKO, or perhaps his striking is greater than Hamill's after all, but since he hasn't gone up against the elite, it's hard to tell.
I expect this to be close, but I think Hamill will shade it by not allowing munoz to take him down and winning the standup portion.
My Take:
There are many variables here, including how good Munoz' striking really is, and how good Hamill's defensive wrestling is.
I would give a slight edge to Hamill, but with him being €1.53, and Munoz being €2.75, it would be wiser to bet on The Philippine Wrecking Machine.
Gabriel 'Napao' Gonzaga vs Shane Carwin
(265lb/120kg)
Gabriel Gonzaga (10-3-0)
+World class Brazilian Jiu Jitsu
+Very powerful Muay Thai
+Very large and strong
-Questionable heart
-Sub-par wrestling
-BJJ game seems to be top orientated
Notable wins:
Mirko 'Cro Cop' Filipovic
Shane Carwin (10-0-0)
+Very good wrestling
+Very powerful ground and pound
+Very large and athletic
+Trains with an excellent camp
-Lack of experience
-May be one-dimensional
Analysis:
With every single one of Carwin's ten bouts having finished in under three minutes, it's hard to gauge exactly where he's at right now, but we know that his XXXXXL gloves have plenty of power behind them, and we also know that he was the 1996 and 1997 NCAA Division II Wrestling National Runner-up at Heavyweight, and the 1999 NCAA II Wrestling Heavyweight National Champion.
Some might say that Carwin's wrestling will be nullified by Gonzaga's BJJ, which he used to win a Mundials title for in 2004, but I believe that Gonzaga's game is top orientated, in fact I can't remember the time he submitted anyone off his back. Gonzaga also never had an extensive record in ADCC, with an overall record of 4-2.
If Carwin plays smart, and I think he will, he'll put Gonzaga on his back, avoiding the younger opponent's powerful strikes. Once Gonzaga is put on his back and punched in the face hard, his gameplan tends to dissolve. Carwin has considerably more power in his GnP than either Randy Couture or Fabricio Werdum, so being on his back with Carwin raining his christmas-ham-sized fists down on top of him will spell defeat, I think.
Gonzaga will probably try to take out Carwin on the feet using his brutal kicks and punches, but Gonzaga's takedowns seem to be lacking; I don' remember him trying for a single one against Couture. I expect Carwin to put him on his back, avoid the submission, and TKO Gabe in the 2nd.
My Take:
Look for Carwin to do what Randy Couture and Fabricio Werdum did, and finish Gonzaga with a GnP TKO. At about €2.38 underdog, Carwin is a solid bet, and I'll probably end up throwing about €50 on him through Boylesports.com.
Carwin with an upset.
Quinton 'Rampage' Jackson vs Keith 'The Dean of Mean' Jardine (205lb/93kg)
All betting odds based on return per euro, so €1.33 means that for every one euro you bet, you get a total of one euro and thirty three cent back, i.e., you get €0.33 in winnings.
UFC 96 Main Card
Gray 'The Bully' Maynard vs Jim Miller
(155lb/70kg)
Gray Maynard (6-0-0-1)+Superb wrestling
+Great cardio
+Improving at a fast rate
+Knowledge of submission defense
-Unreliable striking combinations
-No finishing ability displayed as of yet
Notable wins:
Frank Edgar
Rich Clementi
Jim Miller (13-1)+Strong submissions off of back
+Aggressive grappling from top position
-Average stand up
Notable wins:
David Baron
Matt Wiman
Analysis:
Much like Koscheck and Evans in 2008, Maynard has been labelled as a lay and preyer. Someone with no real offensive skill and who relies on top position to win fights for him. For someone with only six fights, I don't think it's too bad a thing; Rashad was 16-0 before he finally gave us a KO (a KO so good that it wiped out any memory of lay and prey). Likewise, Koscheck, didn't show good standup until perhaps the last year, culminating with his brutal KO of Yoshiyuki Yoshida.
Maynard was once in contention for the 2004 US olympic team - but falling short - so his wrestling credentials are up there with both of the aforementioned men. Jim Miller will likely spend most of this bout on his back, searching for armbars, triangles and sweeps. And with nine of his thirteen wins coming by sub, it might not be such a bad thing for him.
While Maynard may have a great wrestling background, whether or not he has the sub defense of a Sean Sherk or a Mitsuhiro Ishida remains to be seen, and in fact, his loss by guillotine to Nate Diaz in TUF 5 may suggest against that, but from his last few fights, he seems to put himself in danger very little.
My Take:
Smart money's on Maynard grinding out the decision win that will likely earn some boos. Look for his GnP to improve. But since his odds are along the lines of €1.50, Miller might be a better take, at €2.38.
Matt 'The Immortal' Brown vs Pete 'Drago' Sell
(170lb/77kg)
Matt Brown (8-7-0)+Has some power in hands
+Has heart
+Aggressive
+Improved sub knowledge
+Decent scramble
+Never been KO'd
-Blue belt in Jiu Jitsu
-Zero high quality wins
Pete Sell (8-4-0)+Sound standup
+Durable
+Good power
+Submission game
-Has lost against all top competition
-Has not knocked out anyone
Analysis:
This appears to be a pick 'em fight. Pete Sell appears to have the cleaner striking, yet he has never KO'd anyone before, and in fact, has been (T)KO'd several times, twice by Nate Quarry, and once by Scott Smith. But they were pretty solid blows that put him down.
His ground game was good enough to avoid the subs of the next Middleweight contender Thales Leites for three rounds, which means that if he plays it smart, he'll be able to give Brown plenty of trouble.
However, Brown's submission win over Ryan Thomas and his impressive scrambling against Dong Hyun Kim could make this a stand up affair. I'm not sure who that would benefit the most; Matt Brown has never been KO'd, and has been known for his heart and has KO's on his record. Mind you, they, like his sub wins, were against low level opposition.
My Take:
I think Sell should have the advantages here; he has sharper striking and does have power despite not having KO's. Add this to his more complete game, and I think Drago should take this, possibly by TKO.
But, with Brown's durability and aggressiveness, any blow could change the game, and this isn't something I'll be placing money on. The odds are practically even, with Sell slight favourite at €1.80, and Brown at €1.95.
Matt 'The Hammer' Hamill vs Mark 'The Philippine Wrcking Machine' Munoz
(205lb/93kg)
Matt Hamill (5-2-0)+Good wrestler
+Good Striker
+Powerful punches
-Not a superbly crisp striker
-Easy to hit
-Not a lot of experience
Mark Munoz (5-0-0)+Very good wrestler
+Good striking
-Has not faced top competition
Analysis:
This is a tough one to call. We know Hamill was a Division III wrestler, while Munoz was Division I, so the wrestling advantage will go to Munoz on paper. However, their wrestling is probably at a close enough level that Hamill may be able to sprawl any of Munoz' shots and force the standup.
In the standup I think I would give the advantage to Hamill; he got the better of the striking exchanges with Bisping and hung in there with Franklin until the liver kick TKO.
If Munoz can get top position and control Hamill on the ground, he could easily score a TKO, or perhaps his striking is greater than Hamill's after all, but since he hasn't gone up against the elite, it's hard to tell.
I expect this to be close, but I think Hamill will shade it by not allowing munoz to take him down and winning the standup portion.
My Take:
There are many variables here, including how good Munoz' striking really is, and how good Hamill's defensive wrestling is.
I would give a slight edge to Hamill, but with him being €1.53, and Munoz being €2.75, it would be wiser to bet on The Philippine Wrecking Machine.
Gabriel 'Napao' Gonzaga vs Shane Carwin
(265lb/120kg)
Gabriel Gonzaga (10-3-0)+World class Brazilian Jiu Jitsu
+Very powerful Muay Thai
+Very large and strong
-Questionable heart
-Sub-par wrestling
-BJJ game seems to be top orientated
Notable wins:
Mirko 'Cro Cop' Filipovic
Shane Carwin (10-0-0)+Very good wrestling
+Very powerful ground and pound
+Very large and athletic
+Trains with an excellent camp
-Lack of experience
-May be one-dimensional
Analysis:
With every single one of Carwin's ten bouts having finished in under three minutes, it's hard to gauge exactly where he's at right now, but we know that his XXXXXL gloves have plenty of power behind them, and we also know that he was the 1996 and 1997 NCAA Division II Wrestling National Runner-up at Heavyweight, and the 1999 NCAA II Wrestling Heavyweight National Champion.
Some might say that Carwin's wrestling will be nullified by Gonzaga's BJJ, which he used to win a Mundials title for in 2004, but I believe that Gonzaga's game is top orientated, in fact I can't remember the time he submitted anyone off his back. Gonzaga also never had an extensive record in ADCC, with an overall record of 4-2.
If Carwin plays smart, and I think he will, he'll put Gonzaga on his back, avoiding the younger opponent's powerful strikes. Once Gonzaga is put on his back and punched in the face hard, his gameplan tends to dissolve. Carwin has considerably more power in his GnP than either Randy Couture or Fabricio Werdum, so being on his back with Carwin raining his christmas-ham-sized fists down on top of him will spell defeat, I think.
Gonzaga will probably try to take out Carwin on the feet using his brutal kicks and punches, but Gonzaga's takedowns seem to be lacking; I don' remember him trying for a single one against Couture. I expect Carwin to put him on his back, avoid the submission, and TKO Gabe in the 2nd.
My Take:
Look for Carwin to do what Randy Couture and Fabricio Werdum did, and finish Gonzaga with a GnP TKO. At about €2.38 underdog, Carwin is a solid bet, and I'll probably end up throwing about €50 on him through Boylesports.com.
Carwin with an upset.
Quinton 'Rampage' Jackson vs Keith 'The Dean of Mean' Jardine (205lb/93kg)
Quinton 'Rampage' Jackson (29-7-0)+Very solid boxing
+KO power in both hands
+Great defensive wrestling
+Can take tremendous punishment
-Poor ground game
-Uses only boxing recently
Notable wins:
Chuck Liddell X 2
Kevin Randleman
Ricardo Arona
Wanderlei Silva
Keith Jardine (14-4-1)+Unorthodox kickboxing style
+Great camp and gameplan
+Strong low kicks
+Good ground game
-Liable to be caught cold
-Poor stanupup defense
-No real offensive wrestlingNotable Wins:
Chuck Liddell
Brandon Vera
Forrest Griffin
Analysis:
Forrest Griffin
Analysis:
Look for Jardine to try to employ a similar strategy to what he used in the Liddell fight and utilising leg kicks the same way Forrest Griffin did, while trying to avoid the counter punch that Jackson will inevitably try to nail him with as he does so. If he can use this strategy, he can outpoint Rampage for a decision similar to his split decision win over Liddell in UFC 76.
But Jardine is very susceptible to being caught in the first minute, as demonstrated by Houston Alexander and Wanderlei Silva. The latter is of particular interest, as Wand countered Keith with a right hand as he went for a low kick, and there will likely be many opportunities for Rampage, who hits every bit as hard, to do the same.
I think it's fair to say that this will be a standup fight, as Rampage hasn't taken people down since he came to UFC, and neither does Jardine, and I doubt he could even if he wanted to, considering how well Jackson did against Henderson at UFC 75.
Finally, I think if Jardine wins this, it has to go to a decision; Rampage can take tremendous punishment (what was it, about 13 consecutive knees from Wanderlei Silva that got him TKO'd in their first bout?) and Jardine can't. Count on Greg Jackson to realise this, and for Jardine to try and pull a Machida-like strategy.
My Take:
At €1.50 or even €1.33 odds, I think Rampage is a solid bet. I don't think that Jardine can stay away from his power for more than a round (maybe two if he nipple tweaks really hard), and Rampage appears to be in good mental shape following his breakdown after his loss to Griffin.
Rampage all the way.
Be sure to check back soon for DREAM.7 predictions!
Rampage all the way.
Be sure to check back soon for DREAM.7 predictions!
No comments:
Post a Comment