DREAM.8 - The Welterweight Grand Prix + More

DREAM.8 - The Welterweight Grand Prix + More


Sergei Kharitonov vs Jeff 'The Snowman' Monson
(93+kg/205+lbs)

Jeff Monson
28-8-0



+ADCC winner at 99+kg in 2005
+Can take punishment

+Excellent submission defence

-Suffers from terrible reach disadvantage, being 5'9 tall
-Lacking offensive striking
-Many ADCC wins came via points; offensive sub game not as great as record might imply
-38 years old
-Takedowns nothing to write home about




Sergei Kharitonov
16-3-0



+Olympic quality boxer; won a silver medal with Tajikistan's team in the 2003 Central Asian Games
+Extensive sambo background
+Never subbed, not against Nogueira, and not against Werdum
+Big hitter

-Fought once in 2008
-Not the most versatile striker



Notable wins

Alistair Overeem (2007)
Fabricio Werdum (2005)

Analysis:

Jeff Monson is a stocky former ADCC winner who relies on winning by points in both grappling and MMA. Sergei Kharitonov is an olympic calibre boxer who won a silver medal for Tajikistan in the 2003 Central Asian Games, has an extensive sambo background, has never been subbed, and has KO wins over Alistair Overeem and Pedro Rizzo.

Kharitonov's most recent win was over an unranked Jimmy Ambriz, and made him tap with kidney punches, and his power clearly hasn't left him. This spells trouble for Monson, who is five foot nine, while Kharitonov stands at six foot four, and given that Monson's takedowns were stuffed by Tim Sylvia for the majority of the fight, I don't see this ending well for the American.

The only thing he can hope for is for Kharitonov to have been out for so long that his sub defense has suffered, but Monson hasn't exactly been improving either. This is Kharitonov's fight to lose.

My Take:

As already said, Kharitonov should steamroll Monson, but is it sure enough to risk betting with odds on Kharitonov being €1.42? I think it just might be. Monson is at €2.90, but I have a feeling that would be throwing money away

Hideo Tokoro vs Daiki 'DJ Taiki' Hata
(63kg/139lbs)


Hideo Tokoro
21-15-1



+Competent striker, despite only one KO
+Very versatile and unpredictable strikes
+Very capable off back
+Dangerous ground and pound

-Not much of a sprawl

-Striking sometimes more flashy than useful



Daiki Hata
10-5-3

+Marvellous takedown defense

+Skilled boxing; keeps range well and counters very powerfully

-One dimensional striker
-Doesn't check low kicks

Analysis:

This is a pretty close one, that will probably be a standing war at the start, since Tokoro will be hard pressed to get past Hata's sprawl, but that is not a huge setback, since Tokoro has very good striking to set up his grappling with knockdowns.

But I think I would give a slight striking advantage to Hata, even if it is one dimensional, he possesses a lot of power, and appears to have the greater chin. He makes great use of range and I see him countering Tokoro for the majority of the fight.

My Take:

The difficulty in picking this fight is reflected in the betting odds, with Tokoro at €1.83 and Hata at €1.91. Hata is at slightly better value, and I think he's a better bet and would expect him to win by decision.

John 'The Natural' Alessio vs Andre Galvao
(76kg/168lbs)

Andre Galvao
2-0-0



+World class Jiu Jitsu; Mundials winner at 85kg in 2008, and 79kg in 2005
+Has had a smooth start, with two submission wins

-Still very inexperienced; hasn't really been hit yet
-Bad standup
-Sluggish takedowns






John Alessio
24-12-0



+Relentless with takedowns
+Good wrestling, despite no credentials of note

-Lax striker without handspeed









Analysis:

Alessio will not submit Galvao, two time Mundials winner and training partner of Jacaré, so his options are more limited than usual.
This is a fight where one of Alessio's most valuable traits, which is his doggedness to get a takedowns, won't help him that much. He isn't a GnP machine, so I doubt Galvao will be averse to being on his back, and if Alessio is smart, I don't think he'll want to put him there.

But will his standup be good enough to take out Galvao?

Like most pure submission artists, Galvao's GnP is poor, but with submission skills like his, it probably won't be too much of a difference until he meets someone with crazy sub defense.

I think Alessio better hope that Galvao has glass jaw, because I don't see this staying off the mat for long, and I dont trust Alessio's sub defense to be good enough to fend him off - half of his losses have come by submission.

Only one of Alessio's last eight wins have come by (T)KO, and was never really a dangerous striker.

My Take:

Unless Galvao turtles up the first time he's hit, I don't see this ending well for Alessio. Galvao is €1.71 and Alessio is €2.10, but I still think Galvao is a better bet. Expect Galvao to use his ground game to tie up Alessio, and finish. Galvao by sub, Round 1.

Marius Zaromskis vs Seichi Ikemoto
(76kg/168lbs)

Marius Zaromskis
8-2-0



+Crackling kicks at all levels and directions
+Knows how to set up his shots strategically

+Powerful punches in bunches
+Good jumping knees

-Poor takedowns

-Not much offensive subs. Only submission win was over a 0-0-0 Swierkosz

Seichi Ikemoto
18-14-5



+Versatile striking
+Good low, mid, and high kicks

-Doesn't know many escapes when put into disadvantageous grappling positions
-Flatfooted standup
-Terrible submission game
-Mediocre sprawl

Analysis

Marius Zaromskis is not one of the most well known fighters in the world, but fans of Cage Rage will recognise him as a dangerous and versatile striker, with seven of his eight wins being by (T)KO, utilising high kicks, spinning back kicks, punches and flying knees in the process.

Ikemoto is a striker, but doesn't have great movement and has an abysmal record of 18-14-5, but nonetheless obtained his spot in the GP by TKOing Hidetaka Monma at DEEP 40.

Zaromskis hasn't been fighting the upper echelon of welterweights, but it's not hard to see the skills he possesses, and he's impressed me much more than Ikemoto has in any of his bouts - he hits harder, faster, and follows up.

To Ikemoto's credit, only two of his fourteen losses have come by T(KO), but if Eddie Alvarez can do it, Zaromskis certainly can. I dont think submissions will come into play here; neither one of these two is a submission specialist, so I think this stays standing, at least until someone gets knocked down and pounded out, and this will benefit Zaromskis greatly.

My Take

I expect Zaromskis to be the Mousasi or Alvarez of this tournament, an unknown who bursts onto the MMA scene.So I expect him to tear Ikemoto apart. I think a grappler or wrestler is needed to take out Zaromskis, because fom what I've seen, he may be the best striker in the Welterweight GP.

Zaromskis by TKO Round 1, and even being €1.65, that's not such a bad bet


Yuya Shirai vs Jason High
(76kg/168lbs)

Yuya Shirai
15-7-0



+Very frustrating clinch game that ties up opponents successfully
+Quick transitions and submissions
+Good judo based takedowns from clinch

-Is a stationary target for a fast striker
-Sprawl needs improvement
-Very few submissions off back






Jason High
6-1-0



+Solid wrestling background
+High level of strength
+Has shown power and willingless to throw

-Striking very amateur and unrefined
-Not a tremendous amount of experience








Analysis:

With 8 of Shirai's 15 wins coming by decision, I doubt he'll finish High.

If he does defeat High, it will probably be a decision win, likely using his top game to keep High pinned, and avoiding submissions - Shirai hasn't been subbed yet - and possibly looking for submissions of his own in between.

High is an athletic wrestler and appears to have some (unrefined) power in his hands and some of his wins have come by sub, but I think his best chance of winning is putting Shirai on his back and using GnP to win.

My Take:

I think High will probably win by GnP TKO, but with his odds at €1.67, and with Shirai's at €2.20, betting on Shirai is likely smarter.


Shinya 'Tobikan Judokan' Aoki vs Hayato 'Mach' Sakurai
(76kg/168lbs)

Shinya Aoki
20-3-0-1



+Excellent grappling +Can always get a fight to the ground, even through pulling guard in midair
+Very effective rubber guard that is difficult to work ground and pound against
+Both top and bottom game extremely effective

-Bad Striking
-Poor ground and pound



Notable wins

Joachim Hansen (2006)
Gesias Calvancante (2008)
Eddie Alvarez (2008)
Caol Uno (2008)


Hayato Sakurai
34-8-2



+Extremely varied striking, utilises variety of kickboxing, boxing and Thai boxing technique.
+Potent ground and pound
+Very difficult to submit; ADCC Absolute division runner up in 1999

-Leaves hands too low and doesn't have the head movement and footwork to make it work
-Hasn't subbed an opponent since 2004

Notable wins

Joachim Hansen (2005)
Shinya Aoki (2005)
Frank Trigg (2000)

Analysis:

With their last fight being a close run affair, one would expect this to be more of the same; that is, Sakurai pitting his considerable sub defense against Aoki's formidable submission skill.

Sakurai's striking is good, but I wouldn't put it above Calvancante's or Alvarez', two fighters in Aoki's win list, but his sub defense is going to make him much less afraid to deliver GnP if Aoki pulls flying guard or starts buttscooting across the ring.

A very important factor here is the age difference. With Sakurai at 33 years old and having had 44 professional fights, he looks as though his best days are past him. Aoki is, on the other hand, 25 years old, and only seems to be reaching his peak right now.

The standup portion of this one will probably be minimum, as it tends to be in every one of Aoki's bouts, and I think it will probably look a lot like the last one, whoever wins. I don't expect a finish, despite both men having been finished before in 2008.

Some cite the Hansen fight as reason why Aoki cannot take punishment without folding, he fought through some severe injuries during the second Calvancante fight, including a severely bruised rib and torn cartilage in his costal area.

My take:

Sakurai has some very good GnP but I don't think he'll be able to recreate what Hansen did last summer - that was after 15 minutes of grappling with Uno, and Aoki was not fresh before he was TKO'd by a very strong left.

I expect this to look something like the Calvancante fight, with Aoki using sub attempt after sub attempt to get a decision win - him being pushed by FEG as the new poster fighter of DREAM won't hurt him either

Aoki comes in at €1.53, while Sakurai comes in at €2.55, so there isn't a good enough reason to bet on Aoki, and it would probably be more reasonable to bet on Sakurai.

DREAM.7

DREAM.7 Featherweight Grand Prix 1st Round





Takafumi Otsuka vs Bibiano 'the Flash' Fernandes
(63kg/139lbs)

Takafumi Otsuka 8-3-1

+Fast and versatile striking
+Mixes up takedowns with striking fluidly
+Has not been submitted since his MMA debut
+Fast ground and pound
+Solid wrestling

-No offensive submissions
-Has a tendency to be passive in an opponents guard





Bibiano Fernandes 3-2-0

+Has had a baptism of fire, with Norifumi 'KID' Yamamoto as his 2nd fight, and Urijah Faber as his 3rd.
+Has won Mundials black belt super featherweight title in 2006 and 2005, among other impressive grappling credentials.
+Excellent transition of grappling to MMA
+Leeches to opponents very effectively

-Flatfooted standup
-Takedown attempts are somewhat telegraphed



Analysis:

Bibiano Fernandes, 3-2-0. An underwhelming record, but since those two who defeated him were Norifumi 'KID' Yamamoto and Urijah Faber, in his 2nd and 3rd fights respectively, his losses are hardly much detriment. With outstanding achievements in jiu jitsu, and dogged determination to bring his opponents to the ground, the Brazilian is the sleeper of the grand prix for many.

He'll need that against Otsuka, who has very solid wrestling and has not been subbed since his professional debut. Otsuka has good stiking and GnP, which he'll probably need to win this fight, because Fernandes will get this fight to the ground some way or another, so Otsuka's sub defense is vital.

Fernandes is pretty durable, the TKO loss to Faber beind due to an elbow, and that's a very awkward thing for an opponwent to deal with, especially when you're guaranteed that this fight will end up going to ground - he took down KID, who almost got to wrestle in the Beijing 2008 Olympics - so it's hard to see Otsuka winning this by anything other than decision.

My Take:

Fernandes all the way, I don't see Otsuka finishing him and I don't see him avoiding submissions for 15 minutes, simple as that.

But with Fernandes' odds being €1.47, and Otsuka's at €2.75, it might be smarter to take Otsuka.

Fernandes by sub, Round 1.


Chase 'The Rage' Beebe vs Joe Warren
(63kg/139lbs)


Chase Beebe
12-3-0

+Very Knowledgable with subs
+Some of the best sub defense around
+F
our time Illinois State Champion wrestler

-Not known for submission ability off back
-Not an outstanding striker



Notable wins:

Rani Yahya


Joe Warren
0-0-0

+2006 world champion wrestler
+Winner of the world team trials in 2007
+Was thought have potential for a medal in 2008 Olympics

-MMA debut
-Hardly enough time to develop good standup
-Very little time to develop good submission defence






Analysis:

In modern MMA, well roundedness has versatility in all levels of fighting has been revealed to be crucial, so here's an olympic calibre wrestler, possibly the best wrestler in his weight class around right now, presenting the same old question: Can a one dimension specialist find true success in MMA today?


If Warren wants to get Beebe down, odds are Beebe will be on his back, state wrestler or not, and if Warren doesn't want to go to ground, odds are that's not going to be too much of a problem either.

But Warren has had very little time to prepare for MMA, so while he can dictate where the fight goes, what on earth is he going to do when it gets where he wants it? Maybe he fancies himself a better striker than Beebe and will try to outpoint him or even KO him, but I see him resorting to go with his instincts and put Beebe on his back.

Many of Beebe's subs come from ground and pound - which won't be a factor against Warren unless he knocks him down with a strike - but his sub skill off his back will likely be more than
enough to get a hold of something while he's down there. Let's not forget, he avoided submission from Rani Yahya, who won the 66kg division of ADCC in 2007, so his submission knowledge will be key.

My Take:

I fully expect Warren to take Beebe down, and I fully expect Beebe to submit him. Warren has had very little time to prepare for MMA and I think this is going to look like Royce submitting UFC 1 fighters.

Beebe might not be a wizard off his back, but against someone as new as Warren he may as well be Roger Gracie. Beebe at €1.74 is not half bad.

Beebe by submission, Round 1.


Akiyo 'Wicky' Nishiura vs Abel Cullum
(63kg/139lbs)

Akiyo Nishiura 9-3-1

+Good use of angles +Versatile striking +Very fast and sudden striking
+Nimble and quick footwork
+Good at scrambling back to feet
+Never subbed

-Takedown defense is average at best
-Style of throwing power shots leaves him open for takedowns and counter-punching





Abel Cullum 13-2-0

+Fast and hard ground and pound
+Very good sweeps and transitions
+Extremely frustrating guard
+Uses stand up well

-Standup has power but is particularly explosive or fast and is wide open for counters.
-Takedowns aren't anything great






Analysis:
Another grappler versus striker matchup that is once again a close pick.

Abel Cullum has a very effective guard that allows him to take very little damage on bottom, and since Nishiura is really more of a stand up fighter, I don't think Cullum will be taking damage off his back, and if there's any real GnP, it will come from him - unless Nishiura knocks him half unconscious and goes to finish him off.

But Cullum will have a hard time taking down Wicky, who is very fast and who will no doubt be making him pay every time he attempts to take him down. Nishiura hits hard and fast, but Cullum is durable - never KO'd - and will probably find a way to get this fight down one way or another - but it will be more difficult in DREAM, as there is no cage to push the opponent against.

My Take:

I'm almost totally split between this. At the moment I'm leaning towards a Cullum sub, but in an hour I might say Nishiura KO.

Nishiura has a good scramble and has never been subbed, but Cullum is good at controlling people on the ground, so he should be able to hold on for a decision if he plays it smart, if not, Wicky takes this by KO.

With the lines at about €1.74 for Cullum and €2.05 for Nishiura, my gambling instincts are leaning towards Nishiura.

But betting lines aside, Cullum by sub Round 2.


Yoshiro Maeda vs Micah Miller
(63kgs/139lbs)

Yoshiro Maeda
23-6-2

+Powerful kicks and punches
+Very versatile striker


-Not strong on sub defense
-Standup can get wild









Micah Miller
10-2-0


+Dangerous guard
+Good at tying the opponent up from both top and bottom position

-Striking is not really dangerous
-Not very aggressive



Analysis:

This looks like a 50-50 fight, with Maeda being the considerably better striker, and Miller being the stronger grappler.

A quick glance of Maeda's record tells us how versatile his striking is, with (T)KOs via punches, punches and kicks, body kicks, flying knees, soccer kicks, flying knees and punches, and head kicks can all be found on his win list.

As for Miller, his favourite submission seems to be the triangle choke, which he has used 4 times in his 10 wins, followed by the rear
naked choke which he has used to win twice. Miller doesn't really pursue takedowns relentlessly like Jacaré or Palhares, and will spend time standing and I think this could be troube against Maeda, who, if given time, will set up his shots and tear you apart.

My take:

Hard to call, but I think Miller's defensive fighting style will give Maeda the KO,and at €1.67, I think this is reflected accurately. Miller is at €2.20, which would probably make more sense to any gamblers out there.

Maeda by KO, Round 1


Hiroyuki 'Street FightBancho' Takaya vs Kim Jong
Won
(63kg/139lbs)


Hiroyuki Takaya
9-6-1

+Solid boxing
+Decent hand speed

+Good sprawl
+Nice use of Muay Thai clinch


-Sub-par ground skills
-Has never won by submission





Kim Jong Won
0-0-0

+9th place in the 1996 Atlanta Olympics for Judo in the 60kg category
+15 months preparation for MMA debut
+Trains grappling at Team Yoon and spars with K.MAX, runner up in the K-1 World MAX 2008 Asia tournament

-Even with training, striking will likely be weak
-Judo skill may not transfer to MMA
-Gi grappling is different to no-gi grappling




Analysis:

This is a pretty bad matchup for Won, facing an opponent with a solid sprawl and boxing, this could be very interesting.

Having finished 9th in the Atlanta Olympics a bit more than 12 years ago, one would think that Won's takedowns/throws would be top notch, and certainly good enough to get past Takaya's sprawl. If they clinch, Takaya will likely end up going for a ride, gi or no gi.


If Won puts him down, can he finish him? I'd say yes, his grappling partner Yoon Dong Sik was certainly able to finish his fair share of opponents, despite his dismal 4-6-0 record.


Of course, in order to get to a clinch, he may have to eat some strikes on the way, and that can be a rude enough awakening to some making their professional MMA debut, especially to those
who did not come from a striking background.
Hiroyuki will need to keep his distance and pick his shots carefully and probably use the Muay Thai clinch sparingly if at all.

My Take:

I think that this is going to be a much closer fight than people think; if Won can get past the striking of Hiroyuki, I think his judo skills will be enough to win him this fight, and with a €2.60 price, he's a solid bet.

Won by unanimous decision.


Masakazu 'Ashikan Judan' Imanari vs Atsushi Yamamoto
(63kg/139lbs)


Masakazu Imanari
15-6-1

+Ferocious leg locks
+Best killer instinct in MMA


-One dimensional
-Bad striking





Notable wins:

Mike Thomas Brown
Yoshiro Maeda


Atsushi Yamamoto
12-5-1

+Good wrestling
+Good top control

-Highly passive in an opponents guard
-Nine of his twelve wins have been by decision, including last five
-No real outstanding skills


Analysis:

While Imanari may not have the most out there, his leglocks are legendary, as is his willingness to finish them. Like Shinya Aoki, Imanari can fight extremely effectively off his back, and will commonly pull guard to try and seize an ankle or knee, or sometimes just work for a sweep.

This presents an interesting problem to Atsushi, as to whether he will try to keep it standing or use his wrestling to try and force the decision, or more unlikely TKO. My guess is he'll probably
try to feel out Imanari in the feet, but won't be too averse to going down if Imanari pulls guard.

My Take:

I consider this to be a gimme fight for Imanari; I don't think Atsushi will finish him, and I don't think he'll be able to avoid the ground for too long. Imanari is €1.54 and for good reason; expect him to make another man scream on Sunday.

Imanari by sub, Round 1.