DREAM.8 - The Welterweight Grand Prix + More

DREAM.8 - The Welterweight Grand Prix + More


Sergei Kharitonov vs Jeff 'The Snowman' Monson
(93+kg/205+lbs)

Jeff Monson
28-8-0



+ADCC winner at 99+kg in 2005
+Can take punishment

+Excellent submission defence

-Suffers from terrible reach disadvantage, being 5'9 tall
-Lacking offensive striking
-Many ADCC wins came via points; offensive sub game not as great as record might imply
-38 years old
-Takedowns nothing to write home about




Sergei Kharitonov
16-3-0



+Olympic quality boxer; won a silver medal with Tajikistan's team in the 2003 Central Asian Games
+Extensive sambo background
+Never subbed, not against Nogueira, and not against Werdum
+Big hitter

-Fought once in 2008
-Not the most versatile striker



Notable wins

Alistair Overeem (2007)
Fabricio Werdum (2005)

Analysis:

Jeff Monson is a stocky former ADCC winner who relies on winning by points in both grappling and MMA. Sergei Kharitonov is an olympic calibre boxer who won a silver medal for Tajikistan in the 2003 Central Asian Games, has an extensive sambo background, has never been subbed, and has KO wins over Alistair Overeem and Pedro Rizzo.

Kharitonov's most recent win was over an unranked Jimmy Ambriz, and made him tap with kidney punches, and his power clearly hasn't left him. This spells trouble for Monson, who is five foot nine, while Kharitonov stands at six foot four, and given that Monson's takedowns were stuffed by Tim Sylvia for the majority of the fight, I don't see this ending well for the American.

The only thing he can hope for is for Kharitonov to have been out for so long that his sub defense has suffered, but Monson hasn't exactly been improving either. This is Kharitonov's fight to lose.

My Take:

As already said, Kharitonov should steamroll Monson, but is it sure enough to risk betting with odds on Kharitonov being €1.42? I think it just might be. Monson is at €2.90, but I have a feeling that would be throwing money away

Hideo Tokoro vs Daiki 'DJ Taiki' Hata
(63kg/139lbs)


Hideo Tokoro
21-15-1



+Competent striker, despite only one KO
+Very versatile and unpredictable strikes
+Very capable off back
+Dangerous ground and pound

-Not much of a sprawl

-Striking sometimes more flashy than useful



Daiki Hata
10-5-3

+Marvellous takedown defense

+Skilled boxing; keeps range well and counters very powerfully

-One dimensional striker
-Doesn't check low kicks

Analysis:

This is a pretty close one, that will probably be a standing war at the start, since Tokoro will be hard pressed to get past Hata's sprawl, but that is not a huge setback, since Tokoro has very good striking to set up his grappling with knockdowns.

But I think I would give a slight striking advantage to Hata, even if it is one dimensional, he possesses a lot of power, and appears to have the greater chin. He makes great use of range and I see him countering Tokoro for the majority of the fight.

My Take:

The difficulty in picking this fight is reflected in the betting odds, with Tokoro at €1.83 and Hata at €1.91. Hata is at slightly better value, and I think he's a better bet and would expect him to win by decision.

John 'The Natural' Alessio vs Andre Galvao
(76kg/168lbs)

Andre Galvao
2-0-0



+World class Jiu Jitsu; Mundials winner at 85kg in 2008, and 79kg in 2005
+Has had a smooth start, with two submission wins

-Still very inexperienced; hasn't really been hit yet
-Bad standup
-Sluggish takedowns






John Alessio
24-12-0



+Relentless with takedowns
+Good wrestling, despite no credentials of note

-Lax striker without handspeed









Analysis:

Alessio will not submit Galvao, two time Mundials winner and training partner of Jacaré, so his options are more limited than usual.
This is a fight where one of Alessio's most valuable traits, which is his doggedness to get a takedowns, won't help him that much. He isn't a GnP machine, so I doubt Galvao will be averse to being on his back, and if Alessio is smart, I don't think he'll want to put him there.

But will his standup be good enough to take out Galvao?

Like most pure submission artists, Galvao's GnP is poor, but with submission skills like his, it probably won't be too much of a difference until he meets someone with crazy sub defense.

I think Alessio better hope that Galvao has glass jaw, because I don't see this staying off the mat for long, and I dont trust Alessio's sub defense to be good enough to fend him off - half of his losses have come by submission.

Only one of Alessio's last eight wins have come by (T)KO, and was never really a dangerous striker.

My Take:

Unless Galvao turtles up the first time he's hit, I don't see this ending well for Alessio. Galvao is €1.71 and Alessio is €2.10, but I still think Galvao is a better bet. Expect Galvao to use his ground game to tie up Alessio, and finish. Galvao by sub, Round 1.

Marius Zaromskis vs Seichi Ikemoto
(76kg/168lbs)

Marius Zaromskis
8-2-0



+Crackling kicks at all levels and directions
+Knows how to set up his shots strategically

+Powerful punches in bunches
+Good jumping knees

-Poor takedowns

-Not much offensive subs. Only submission win was over a 0-0-0 Swierkosz

Seichi Ikemoto
18-14-5



+Versatile striking
+Good low, mid, and high kicks

-Doesn't know many escapes when put into disadvantageous grappling positions
-Flatfooted standup
-Terrible submission game
-Mediocre sprawl

Analysis

Marius Zaromskis is not one of the most well known fighters in the world, but fans of Cage Rage will recognise him as a dangerous and versatile striker, with seven of his eight wins being by (T)KO, utilising high kicks, spinning back kicks, punches and flying knees in the process.

Ikemoto is a striker, but doesn't have great movement and has an abysmal record of 18-14-5, but nonetheless obtained his spot in the GP by TKOing Hidetaka Monma at DEEP 40.

Zaromskis hasn't been fighting the upper echelon of welterweights, but it's not hard to see the skills he possesses, and he's impressed me much more than Ikemoto has in any of his bouts - he hits harder, faster, and follows up.

To Ikemoto's credit, only two of his fourteen losses have come by T(KO), but if Eddie Alvarez can do it, Zaromskis certainly can. I dont think submissions will come into play here; neither one of these two is a submission specialist, so I think this stays standing, at least until someone gets knocked down and pounded out, and this will benefit Zaromskis greatly.

My Take

I expect Zaromskis to be the Mousasi or Alvarez of this tournament, an unknown who bursts onto the MMA scene.So I expect him to tear Ikemoto apart. I think a grappler or wrestler is needed to take out Zaromskis, because fom what I've seen, he may be the best striker in the Welterweight GP.

Zaromskis by TKO Round 1, and even being €1.65, that's not such a bad bet


Yuya Shirai vs Jason High
(76kg/168lbs)

Yuya Shirai
15-7-0



+Very frustrating clinch game that ties up opponents successfully
+Quick transitions and submissions
+Good judo based takedowns from clinch

-Is a stationary target for a fast striker
-Sprawl needs improvement
-Very few submissions off back






Jason High
6-1-0



+Solid wrestling background
+High level of strength
+Has shown power and willingless to throw

-Striking very amateur and unrefined
-Not a tremendous amount of experience








Analysis:

With 8 of Shirai's 15 wins coming by decision, I doubt he'll finish High.

If he does defeat High, it will probably be a decision win, likely using his top game to keep High pinned, and avoiding submissions - Shirai hasn't been subbed yet - and possibly looking for submissions of his own in between.

High is an athletic wrestler and appears to have some (unrefined) power in his hands and some of his wins have come by sub, but I think his best chance of winning is putting Shirai on his back and using GnP to win.

My Take:

I think High will probably win by GnP TKO, but with his odds at €1.67, and with Shirai's at €2.20, betting on Shirai is likely smarter.


Shinya 'Tobikan Judokan' Aoki vs Hayato 'Mach' Sakurai
(76kg/168lbs)

Shinya Aoki
20-3-0-1



+Excellent grappling +Can always get a fight to the ground, even through pulling guard in midair
+Very effective rubber guard that is difficult to work ground and pound against
+Both top and bottom game extremely effective

-Bad Striking
-Poor ground and pound



Notable wins

Joachim Hansen (2006)
Gesias Calvancante (2008)
Eddie Alvarez (2008)
Caol Uno (2008)


Hayato Sakurai
34-8-2



+Extremely varied striking, utilises variety of kickboxing, boxing and Thai boxing technique.
+Potent ground and pound
+Very difficult to submit; ADCC Absolute division runner up in 1999

-Leaves hands too low and doesn't have the head movement and footwork to make it work
-Hasn't subbed an opponent since 2004

Notable wins

Joachim Hansen (2005)
Shinya Aoki (2005)
Frank Trigg (2000)

Analysis:

With their last fight being a close run affair, one would expect this to be more of the same; that is, Sakurai pitting his considerable sub defense against Aoki's formidable submission skill.

Sakurai's striking is good, but I wouldn't put it above Calvancante's or Alvarez', two fighters in Aoki's win list, but his sub defense is going to make him much less afraid to deliver GnP if Aoki pulls flying guard or starts buttscooting across the ring.

A very important factor here is the age difference. With Sakurai at 33 years old and having had 44 professional fights, he looks as though his best days are past him. Aoki is, on the other hand, 25 years old, and only seems to be reaching his peak right now.

The standup portion of this one will probably be minimum, as it tends to be in every one of Aoki's bouts, and I think it will probably look a lot like the last one, whoever wins. I don't expect a finish, despite both men having been finished before in 2008.

Some cite the Hansen fight as reason why Aoki cannot take punishment without folding, he fought through some severe injuries during the second Calvancante fight, including a severely bruised rib and torn cartilage in his costal area.

My take:

Sakurai has some very good GnP but I don't think he'll be able to recreate what Hansen did last summer - that was after 15 minutes of grappling with Uno, and Aoki was not fresh before he was TKO'd by a very strong left.

I expect this to look something like the Calvancante fight, with Aoki using sub attempt after sub attempt to get a decision win - him being pushed by FEG as the new poster fighter of DREAM won't hurt him either

Aoki comes in at €1.53, while Sakurai comes in at €2.55, so there isn't a good enough reason to bet on Aoki, and it would probably be more reasonable to bet on Sakurai.