UFC 97: Redemption - Main Card

Krzysztof 'The Polish Experiment' Soszynski vs Brian 'All American' Stann

(205lbs/93kg)

Krzysztof Soszynski
16-8-1

+Hard hitter
+Wrestling background

-Pretty much just a slugger and brawler standing

-Mediocre sub game

Brian Stann

6-1-0

+ Plenty of punching force
+Technical striker

-Never subbed any opponent
-Still untested in many areas

Analysis:

Odds are this is going to be a backyard brawl, two fighters going toe to toe, and seeing who falls first.

Hard to pick, but Stann looks like a more technical fighter, but Soszynski always has the wrestling advantage, but I doubt it will come into play until at least Round 2. Stann is just as big a puncher as Soszynski and has won his first six fights by (T)KO before losing to Cantwell by TKO.

Both have decent chins, so I could see this going to decision, and getting Fight of the Night in the process.

My Take:

I'd lean slightly towards Stann, and with him as the underdog at €2.25, I say back him. Soszynski enters at €1.65.



Luiz 'Banha' Cane vs Steve 'The Robot' Cantwell
(205lbs/93kg)

Luiz Cane
9-1-0



+Has powerful and varied strikes
+Can take storms of punishment
+Black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu

-Toe to toe style of striking can lead to trouble
-Has trouble establishing range








Steve Cantwell
7-1-0



+Good counter striker
+Good at avoiding damage
+Killer instinct
+Brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu

-Bad takedowns
-Hasn't evolved his standup beyond boxing







Analysis:

Cantwell appears to have clean and technical striking, strong on fundamentals, but is that enough against Luiz Arthur Cane? Cane demonstrated against Sokoudjou that he can take every bit as much as he give, so Cantwell will have his work cut out for him.

But while Cane's fight against Sokoudjou told us that he was durable, it also told us that he was not able to get comfortable against him until the Cameroonian had already landed some brutal shots.

I don't expect Cantwell to push the pace like Sokoudjou did, and I don't expect him to punish Cane as much either. Cantwell really only appears to have technical boxing in the way of standup.

There won't be much ground action, I'm guessing, as the submission skills of these two will likely cancel out.

My Take:

Cane will probably win by being all around better, but at €1.29, he is hardly worth it, while Cantwell comes in at about €3.60. If I was betting, I'd have to go against my instincts and hope for an upset by Cantwell.



Cheick Kongo vs Antoni Hardonk

(265lbs/120kg)

Cheick Kongo

13-4-1

+Much improved sprawl and takedowns

+Good ground and pound

+Good low and mid kicks

-Questionable heart

-Poor submission game

-Commonly hits opponents with groin attacks

Notable wins:

Mirko 'Cro Cop' Filipovic

Antoni Hardonk

8-4-0

+Monstrous low kicks
+Good chin
+Good recovery time

-Head movement lacking -Has tendency to brawl, leading to getting dropped
-Ground game lacking
-Wrestling sub par



Analysis:

Kongo has an advantage here that he normally does not: he can outwrestle Hardonk. This will happen I think if Hardonk gets the better of the standup.

Round 1 will certainly be a standup affair, and I see Hardonk having trouble. His brilliant low kicks aside, he isn't what I'd call a world class striker. World class strikers don't get dropped by Eddie Sanchez.

Kongo got tagged bad by Heath Herring at the start of the fight, and if Handonk can recreate this he could finish him - let's not forget Kongo tapped to Yvel's strikes - but I would see him treating Hardonk's standup game with more respect. He'll probably use his range to keep at bay.

My Take

Expect Kongo to pull out a decision, either through wrestling Hardonk to the ground and maintaining top position, or by beating him on the feet. Kongo is at €1.29, so there is absolutely no reason to bet on him, especially with Hardonk at €3.75.





Chuck 'The Iceman' Liddell vs Maurico 'Shogun' Rua (205lbs/93kg)

Chuck Liddell
21-6-0



+Next to impossible to take down
+Unorthadox and unexpected strikes
+Very good counter striker

-Leaves hands dangerously low
-Does not check kicks
-Not good coming forward
-Never showed a submission game






Notable wins:

Wanderlei Silva (2008)
Tito Ortiz x2 (2006, 2004)
Renato 'Babalu' Sobral x2 (2006, 2003)
Randy Couture x2 (2006, 2005)
Alistar Overeem (2003)
Vitor Belfort (2002)
Murilo Bustamante (2001)
Kevin Randleman (2001)
Jeff Monson (2000)



Mauricio Rua
17-3-0



+Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt
+Good low kicks
+Powerful strikes
+Good Muay Thai clinch

-Leaves hands low
-Horrible cardio
-No stomps or soccer kicks available to him




Notable wins:

Alistair Overeem x2 (2007, 2005)
Ricardo Arona (2005)
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (2005)
Quinton Jackson(2005)

Analysis:

Regrding who looked better in their last respective bouts, it would be a pretty close thing, as neither looked anwhere near impressive.

With Liddell not landing anything against Evans before getting brutally KO'd, and with Rua looking horrible and completly burnt out after one round with 44 year old Coleman who hadn't won a fight since 2006, this bout hardly has the same appeal as it would have had three years ago.

Some say Rua is tailor made for Liddell to KO, since he will probably be able to repel any takedown attempts (and if that fails he can stand back up) and considering Rua leaves his hands low and his cardio was almost non-existent in his last bout, this would seem to enforce their opinions.

But this is all relying on Liddell's KO power, something he was always famous for. But after seeing him go toe to toe with Wanderlei Silva for 15 minutes and fail to knock him down once, I'm not sure it's still there - Wanderlei Silva has been KO'd by Rampage, Henderson and Cro Cop in his last five fights.

As Keith Jardine showed, Liddell does not check low kicks. This could be bad news against Rua, especiallly if he employs a stick and move strategy. But of course, this relies on Rua improving his cardio. If he fails to do this, he will be a stationary target and it doesn't take much to KO a gassed opponent.

But if he can get back to full fitness, we could see him pulling a Frank Mir-like comeback; who would bet on Brandon Vera KO'ing Mir today?

My Take:

I would prefer to bet on Shogun, he comes in at €2.60, compared to Liddell's €1.50.

Liddell is 39, and has been in obvious decline. Shogun cannot get worse than is last performances against Coleman and Griffin. Shogun by TKO, Round 2.


Anderson 'The Spider' Silva vs Thales Leites (185lbs/84kg)

Anderson Silva
23-4-0



+Superb handsped
+Versatile and unpredictable striker
+Great chin
+Vicious Muay Thai clinch
+Good defensive guard
+ Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt

-Offensive wrestling hardly used
-Never exhibited brilliant ground and pound



Notable wins:

Dan Henderson (2008)
Rich Franklin x2 (2007, 2006)
Nate Marquardt (2007)
Travis Lutter (2007)

Thales Leites
14-1-0



+Brazilian jiu jitsu blackbelt
+Transition game very good

-Standup very basic
-Ground and pound average









Analysis:

Leites is a Jiu Jitsu black belt but hasn't won ADCC or Mundials titles, so I don't think his ground game is going to be good enough to trouble Anderson Silva, who trains with Jacaré and Galvao, and who has a black belt himself under the Nogueiras.

Add to this that Leites doesn't have awesome takedowns or GnP, and I'm pretty confident saying that he's for in a world of hurt. People say Silva's takedown defense is poor, but Dan Henderson wasn't exactly taking him down at will, and every time he did, his guard was good enough to prevent major damage.

On the feet there will be only one victor. Anderson has dispatched of strikers like Franklin and Henderson with ease when they stood, and Leites looks very rudimentary standing.

My Take:

Silva by KO, Round 1, probably in the first few minutes. But there isn't really any value in betting on someone €1.16, but at the same time, even at €5.25, is Leites worth a shot? I would need Serra-GSP odds before I'd back Leites here.