UFC 98:Evans vs Machida - Main Card

Sean 'The Muscle Shark' Sherk v Frankie 'The Answer' Edgar
(155lbs/70kg)



Sean Sherk
33-3-1



+Practically unsubmittable
+Great wrestling
+Solid boxing

-Very short
-Rarely attempts submissions









Frankie Edgar
9-1-0



+Good wrestler
+Decent standup

-Doesn't use offensive submissions
-Very short









Analysis:

These are two very similar fighters. Both wrestlers, both with solid striking, both hardly attempt submissions.

That's probably why it was put together; their wrestling advantages will likely cancel, and they'll probably stand. Maynard may have controlled Edgar on the ground, but I don't think Sherk's will be good enough to do the same.

This could be a fight of the night contender here.

My Take:

I think Sherk will likely win, his handspeed making the difference, and since he's fighting someone his own height, the range issues he had with Penn won't exist.

But Sherk is at €1.31, and Edgar is at €3.50. Still prefer to go with Sherk.






Dan Miller vs Chael Sonnen
(185lbs/84kg)

Dan Miller
11-1-0



+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu brown belt
+Decent ground and pound

-Not stellar wrestler
-Standup very amateur









Chael Sonnen
21-10-1



+Two time national NCAA All American wrestling champion
+Good top control

-Bad ground game
-Bad gameplanner
-Never displayed much finishing ability






Notable wins:
Paulo Filho (2008)



Analysis:

This is a tough one. Sonnen's sub defense was never anything amazing, having been subbed by every major BJJ practitioner he ever faced (Maia, Filho, Horn twice, and even Forrest Griffin). The only exception to this was when he defeated a spaced out Filho...by decision.

Miller has problems with the standup, but Sonnen isn't a wonderful striker, so he should at least be able to pull guard even if he can't get a takedown. And Miller has a great opportunity to sub Sonnen on the mat.


My Take:


I'll take Miller by sub, Round 2. Not a huge difference in value between either of them. Miller is at €1.65, Sonnen at €1.80.



Xavier 'Professor X' Foupa-Pokam vs Drew 'The Massacre' McFedries
(185lbs/84kg)



Xavier Foupa-Pokam
20-9-0



+6'1, good reach
+Good use of savate/muay thai
+Hits hard

-Weak sprawl
-Ground skills lacking








Drew McFedries
7-5-0



+Solid boxing
+Good punching power

-Poor sprawl
-Clueless with submissions











Analysis:

Xavier Foupa-Pokam is a much more technical striker than Drew McFedries, who tends to operate by power punching, for the most part, and who got TKO'd by Patrick Coté in the second minute.

He always can land something huge and KO Xavier, but it would appear that Professor X uses cleaner striking and has enough reach to pick him apart.

Another thing worth noting is that, while Kang shut him down on the ground, Xavier's ground game has been noticable improving. Just another advantage in case it hits the ground.


My Take:

I expect Foupa-Pokam to get the (T)KO, probably early on, likely avoiding McFedries' power shots.

Xavier enters as heavy favourite at €1.50. McFedries is €2.60. Maybe there is some value in betting on McFedries, simply for the puncher's chance, but I'll still take Xavier.




Matt Hughes vs Matt 'The Terror' Serra
(170lbs/77kg)

Matt Hughes
42-7-0



+Very good wrestler
+Very good top control
+Good sub defence
+Decent ground and pound

-Bad standup
-Telegraphed takedown shots







Notable wins:
BJ Penn (2006)
Frank Trigg (2005, 2003)
Georges St-Pierre (2004)
Hayato Sakurai (2002)
Carlos Newton (2002)



Matt Serra
9-5-0



+Solid boxing
+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt

-Not a stellar wreslter
-Very short










Notable wins:
Georges St-Pierre (2007)

Analysis:


Serra has good subs, but since 2002, he hasn't won by submission. This is bad news against Hughes, as he'll likely spend his time on his back. It will likely be a boring fight, with Hughes performing lay and pray, and the referee breaking it up with spouts of standup. If Hughes does stand with him, he will likely lose out, as Serra's boxing has looked better than any combos Hughes was ever able to put together.

Serra's key to victory will be utilising his guard to stop GnP with his guard, and try to stay away from takedowns. Hughes' will try to utilise takedowns and top position for a GnP stoppage or decision.

My Take:

Tough call. Hughes gott mauled in his last two fights, but those were to the #1 and #2 welterweights in the world. Serra, like Hughes, also received a mauling from St-Pierre.

Serra is at a surprising €3.50, compared to Hughes' €1.31.

I would expect this to be an extremely close bout, leaning slightly towards Hughes, but Serra makes much more sense to bet on.



Lyoto 'The Dragon' Machida v Rashad 'Sugar' Evans
(205lbs/93kg)




Lyoto Machida
14-0-0



+Incredible understanding of range
+Unique and varied strikes - front kick with the ball of the foot, jumping knees to the liver
+Mentally unshakable
+Excellent takedown defense
+Unorthadox takedowns and sweeps

-Killer instinct lacking
-Ground and pound could be improved




Notable wins:

Thiago Silva (2009)
Tito Ortiz (2008)
Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (2008)
Rich Franklin (2003)


Rashad Evans
13-0-1



+Fast and brutal hooks
+Good wrestler
+Very good boxing movement
+Excellent training camp with great strategies

-Hasn't subbed anyone since his MMA debut
-Has been relying on nothing but boxing for the last two fights
-Has trouble keeping opponents down




Notable wins:
Forrest Griffin (2008)
Chuck Liddell (2008)

Analysis:

Evans boxing vs Machida's karate - a match of two counter strikers. Neither one of these two strike me as one to let booing interrupt their game plan. This could be a tentative affair at the beginning. I expect Machida to score more strikes at the beginning, and this is based on the fact that he isn't hit often, while Rashad was tagged by Griffin plenty.

This will lead Rashad into trouble, because if he starts chasing Machida, it looks bad for him. Every opponent Machida has had has fallen into the trap of chasing and being countered (like watching a Road Runner cartoon), and I think Rashad will have trouble with this.

But Evans isn't Thiago Silva, and his athleticism, power and handspeed are a threat to anyone.

My Take:

I'll take Machida by unanimous decision, and I could see him getting a TKO in the later rounds. Evans has the best gameplanners there are at Greg Jackson's, but I don't think they can solve this puzzle.

Machida is heavy favourite, Rashad comes in at €2.90, Machida at €1.40. But betting against Ryu right now looks like a waste of money.