World Victory Road Presents: Sengoku IX

Kazuyuki 'Ironhead' Fujita vs. Blagoi Ivanov
(93+kg/205+lbs)

Blagoi Ivanov
0-0-0



+World Combat Sambo champion in 2008, giving Fedor Emelianenko his first loss
+Extremely good upper body takedowns
+Versatile striking
+Hits with force
+Changes levels between striking/clinch very well
+Experienced amateur MMA record

-Unknown how well he can takedown his opponents without a gi
-May have trouble adjusting to striking without headgear
-Extremely young, at only 22 years old











Kazuyuki Fujita
15-7-0



+Good wrestler
+Hard to clinch-takedown
+Punches hard

-Not a submission specialist
-Striking combinations very simple









Analysis:

Nice matchup, Fujita is on the way down, but Ivanov can only go up, being the World Combat Sambo champ in 2008. MMA isn't sambo, but the same basics are taught. A lot of the skills he learned in combat sambo - upper body takedowns, striking to set up the clinch, submissions, clinch-fighting - will transfer to MMA.

I see many sources stating that he has a 14-0-1 record in amateur MMA, but I'm not sure if that's verified.

One thing that will trouble him I'm guessing is the lack of a gi with wich to grab his opponents, and Fujita is an very good wrestler, and he will be hard to take down from the clinch - he's so broad he's naturally advantaged against upper body takedowns.

Nonetheless, Fujita has been getting worse and worse it seems, and he recently got KO'd by Travis Wiuff. While his striking may be better than Ivanov's, which is still unrefined as of now, I don't think it will be enough for him to win the fight.

My Take:

I'll take Ivanov by submission; I don't think Fujita has much left to give to MMA, and Ivanov surely has motivation.

Ivanov enters at 1.74, and Fujita enters at 2.05. I'm still going with the Bulgarian.







Kazuo 'Grabaka Hitman' Misaki vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura
(84kg/185lbs)


Kazuo Misaki
21-9-2

+Very elusive hit and move counterstriker

+Versatile kickboxer

+Never been KO'd

+Judo background

-Light hitter

-Too content to win decisions

-Strategy of outpointing the opponent hardly ever varies

Notable Wins:
Dan Henderson(2006)

Kazuhiro Nakamura

13-9-0

+Appeared to be a very strong judo prospect before entering MMA. Has good trips and clinch takedowns.

+Very aggressive ground and pound

+Solid chin

+Good ground control

-Slow, and inaccurate standup

-Striking combinations are almost non-existant

-Very bad defensive movement

-Bad at closing distance to clinch

Analysis:

Nakamura has an uphill battle here. Misaki is a very difficult fighter to engage with, and has beaten many opponents with his stick and move style. Nakamura, like most judokas, suffers from the lack of explosive takedowns, and will find it quite difficult to close the distance and put him on his back - especially since Misaki has a judo background himself.

Even if he does put Misaki on his back, Misaki has been finished three times, and all times by men much more skilled than Nakamura. He has never been KO'd and has only been TKO'd when he broke his arm against Nate Marquardt. Only way Nakamura wins is by decision.

My Take:

Tricky. Misaki is huge favourite at 1.40, but is a pretty safe bet, while Nakamura enters at 2.90. I'm going to go with Misaki and take the risk.




Mizuto Hirota vs. Satoru Kitaoka
(70kg/154lbs)



Satoru Kitaoka
25-8-9



+Light on his feet
+Good takedowns
+Excellent at rolling for leg locks while in guard
+Wicked killer instinct
+Good strategist

-No striking
-Limited ground and pound
-Never (T)KO'd anyone







Notable Wins:
Takanori Gomi (2008)



Mizuto Hirota
11-3-1



+Never been finished
+Powerful hitter
+Good Muay Thai/kickboxing with nice combinations
+Good chin

-Boxing defense may have some room for improvement -Wrestling is nothing much
-Grappling has never been good









Analysis:

Hirota getting in a position to fight for the Sengoku lightweight belt was pretty shocking in itself, but it'll be even harder to make a repeat upset.

Hirota burst onto the scene with a TKO over Ishida, something that hadn't been done to Ishida since Gomi in 2006. If it stayed standing, he'd likely do the same to Kitaoka, but it won't stay standing. Ishida didn't attempt a single takedown in that fight, and if he had, I'd bet on it going differently.

A grappler that's obsessed with taking the fight to the ground at all costs, regardless of whether they're on top or bottom is a difficult thing to deal with for anyone, and Kitaoka has it down to a tee.

All that said, Hirota is an extremely dangerous Muay Thai fighter who makes good use of punches, kicks, and the Muay Thai clinch, and has proven power behind his strikes. All it takes is a lapse and Kitaoka could suffer his first KO.


My Take:


This is likely going to the ground if Hirota doesn't nail him in the opening minutes, and I fully expect the stretchy pants-ed magician to tap Hirota.

Kitaoka by heel hook, round one. I don't think the fact that Hirota hasn't been submitted will save him either.

But Kitaoka is at 1.20, while Hirota is at 4.00, and that is just too bad in terms of value to be bothered with. Hirota is an extremely live underdog.





Marlon Sandro vs. Michihiro Omigawa
(65kg/143lbs)


Marlon Sandro
14-0-0



+Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt
+Fast and violent punches
+Good combinations
+Light enough on his feet for a grappler, and has a surprisingly good striking defense
+Good takedowns
+Good guard passes and transitions

-Top control could be improved
-Uncertain how well his Jiu Jitsu has translated to MMA








Michihiro Omigawa
6-7-1



+Good boxing footwork
+Good clinch takedowns/trips
+Great ground and pound; knees and punches
+Never been subbed

-Never submitted an opponent in MMA
-Not really that threatening standing due to lack of power
-Not a versatile striker










Analysis:

Sandro has been getting better and better from what I've seen. The Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt has got surprising punching power and looks to be picking up striking very well. Added to that, he has good wrestling and won't hesitate to take this to the ground.

Judoka's don't often have the best takedown defense, particularly against lower body takedowns, and that is what Sandro prefers.

Some of Omigawa's best offense is when he's on top, and it may be a better place than standing for him, ironically, as Sandro does not appear to have translated his BJJ to MMA that well, with only three submission wins on his 14-0-0 record. But the undefeated Brazilian is still dangerous from any position.

Standing, I'll give footwork and defense to Omigawa, but power and speed to Sandro. More importantly, I think Sandro KO's him if it stays standing. Only place I see Sandro uncomfortable is on his back.

My Take

Sandro by submission, round two. Omigawa is a decent technical striker but he's not as good a one as DJ Taiki, and he lacks Taiki's awesome sprawl too.

Sandro enters at 1.40, and Omigawa enters at 2.95. Not the best value, but Sandro enters at 4.50 to win the whole tournament, which is good. Omigawa is at 5.00 for the GP.




Hatsu Hioki vs. Masanori Kanehara
(65kg/143lbs)

Hatsu Hioki
19-3-2



+Excellent footwork, floats very light on his feet

+Extremely good transitions

+Good clinch takedowns

+Never been finished

+Good takedown defense

+Extremely good grappler

-May have some holes in striking
-Not an extremely hard hitter










Masanori Kanehara
13-5-5

+Powerful punches and kicks
+Good at toe to toe wars

-More a brawler than anything else
-Defense is not tight











Analysis:

It's pretty much recognised that Hioki is going to have a massive advantage in this bout no matter whether it stays standing or goes to the mat. Hioki has a huge advantage on the ground, and I wouldn't expect Kanehara to last to the end of the round if Hioki gets him on his back.

So Kanehara will obviously try to keep this on the feet, probably without much success. Even if he succeeds I don't see him beating Hioki in that regard.

My Take:

Hioki by submission, Round 1.

Hioki enters at 1.12, while Kanehara enters at 6.25. No real value in Hioki, but Kanehara would just be throwing money away. Hioki is 1.50 to win the tournament, again not very good, while Kanehara is a fitting 18.00. It may be worth putting a tiny play on Kanehara, just incase he pulls out the luckiest of lucky punches.

Bonus Pick: Hatsu Hioki vs. Marlon Sandro

Analysis:

If Omigawa or Kanehara win ignore this. This has all the makings of an epic final, with the grappling of these two men being extremely close. Hikoi would be the more exciting grappler, with a drive to finish the fight, but Sandro is a more methodical grappler, content for decisions, but just as potent. I'd give Hioki a small advantage.

Striking, close again. Sandro would be naturally gifted with more speed and power in his strikes, but Hioki would be the faster more elusive striker. I'll give Sandro a slight edge here.

Hioki has never been finished by anyone, and Sandro has never been beaten.This may come down to who can get top control and outwork their opponent for a decision or late finish. Hioki has a great clinch takedowns, but Sandro is viciously persistent with double and single legs, and again it looks like a coin toss to me.

My Take:

Sandro by extremely controversial split decision, becoming the first Sengoku featherweight champ.

Recap on odds to win GP outright

Marlon Sandro

4.50

Hatsu Hioki

1.50

Masanori Kanehara

18.00

Michihiro Omigawa

5.00

Field (any fighter not listed)

16.00

DREAM.10 - The Welterweight GP Final Round

Dong Sik Yoon vs. Jesse 'JT Money' Taylor
(84kg/185lbs)


Dong Sik Yoon
4-6-0



+Judoka who won gold in 1994 Asian Games (78kg), 1997 Asian Championships (78kg), 2000 Asian Championships (90kg), and 2001 East Asian Games (2001)
+Good heart
+Good chin

-Judo skills have not transitioned well, struggles with takedowns more than expected
-Never gained any good striking ability







Jesse Taylor
11-3-0



+Good ground and pound
+Good wrestling
+Relentless takedowns

-One dimensional
-Gives up positions










Analysis:

The best 4-6 fighter around, Yoon has been consistently tested against top competition (Sakuraba, Mousasi, Nakahara) and had mixed results. He is always dangerous in top position, and can pull off a 'dongbar' in a flash.

Taylor's biggest fight was against CB Dollaway, which he lost by Peruvian Necktie (not to be confused with a Colombian Necktie). Taylor has a weakness with grappling, so Yoon should have a decisive grappling advantage here when the fight hits the ground, regardless of whether he's on top or on bottom.

My Take:

Yoon by arm-, I mean dongbar, Round 1. Yoon enters at 1.44, and Taylor enters at 2.75, so while being heavy favourite, Yoon should not be in too much danger here. Taylor will hardly KO him and won't submit him, obviously. Doubt he'll grind out a decision either.







Melvin 'Marvelous' Manhoef vs. Paulo 'Ely' Filho
(84kg/185lbs)

Melvin Manhoef
23-5-1



+Nightmarish KO power
+Extremely experienced K-1 kickboxer

-Ground game is non existent
-Wrestling is terrible










Paulo Filho
16-1-0



+Extremely decorated Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Black belt in judo

+Persistent in trying to bring fight to the ground

-May have mental lingering issues
-Weak takedown shots
-Average striking








Notable Wins:
Kazuo Misaki (2006)


Analysis:

Stays standing, Manhoef. Ground, Filho. Simple, but is Filho's wrestling good enough to take this to the mat? That I'm not sure about, if Filho focuses this should really be his, if he starts seeing ghosts again Manhoef will make him one.

Manhoef was never really committed to MMA, and when he got subbed by Mousasi he complained about Mousasi not having balls enough to stand with him. Don't expect him to ever have a good sprawl. Filho is committed, and if he's worked out his mental issues he could be a nightmare matchup for Manhoef - like anyone with a wrestling background and submission skill are.

My Take:

Filho by sub, Round 1, minute 1. I don't believe Black House would let him fight again unless he was fit. Filho is at 1.74, Manhoef at 2.05, but I still prefer the Brazilian.







Katsunori Kikuno vs. Andre 'Dida' Amade
(70kg/154lbs)


Katsunori Kikuno
11-1-0



+Extremely prestigious career in Kyokushin Karate
+Judo background
+Transitions between striking/clinching fluid +Aggressive ground and pound
+Very confident striker

-Striking defense not tight
-Takedowns not hard to stuff
-Not a submission artist







Andre Amade
6-3-1



+Wicked power punches
+Fast puncher that throws punches in bunches that have a good chance of overwhelming the opponent in classic Chute Boxe style
+Decent takedown defense
+Good defensive guard

-Wild style may cause him to run out of energy
-Bad grappler
-Open to counterstriking
-Left and right hooks are his primary combinations







Analysis:

Textbook striking vs. aggressive assault. This is difficult to call. Kikuno has an extensive Kyokushin pedigree; his titles include: 1st place in an All-Kyushu Tournament and 1st place in an All-Kansai Tournament, both of which were openweight tournaments.

Dida looks to have a considerable height and reach advantage, and is more tested against top competition, but hasn't fought in more than a year. Kikuno, however, is on an eight fight winning streak, albeit against sub-par competition.

My Take:

Leaning towards Dida by TKO, Round 1. Kikuno is not a counterstriker like Machida, who is impossible to hit; he comes forward, and I think this will play to Amade's game.

Amade enters at 2.45, and Kikuno enters at 1.57, so there is great value on Amade.

Shinya 'Tobikan Judokan' Aoki vs. Vitor 'Shaolin' Ribeiro
(70kg/154lbs)


Shinya Aoki
20-4-0-1



+Jiu Jitsu and Judo black belt
+Can always get a fight to the ground, through orthodox and unorthodox methods
+Very good rubber guard that is difficult to GnP against

-Poor striking
-Sub par ground and pound






Notable Wins:
Eddie Alvarez (2008)
Caol Uno (2008)
Gesias Calvancante (2008)
Joachim Hansen (2006)



Vitor Ribeiro
20-2-0



+Marvelous grappling quality; came 3rd in ADCC 2003 and made it to the quarter finals in ADCC 2000, both times in the 66-76kg division
+Strong takedowns

-Bad striker
-Weak ground and pound








Notable Wins:
Mitsuhiro Ishida (2004)
Joachim Hansen (2003)
Tatsuya Kawajiri (2002)

Analysis:

This is one of the most difficult matchups for Aoki in the lightweight division, perhaps the hardest with the exception of BJ Penn.

Shaolin probably has better grappling than Aoki, a one-dimensional grappler. In fact, Shaolin has the best grappling credentials in the lightweight division, due to his performances in ADCC 2003 and ADCC 2000.

It's not hopeless for Aoki. His BJJ is good enough to prevent him from being subbed, and to try for submissions himself, but he won't submit Ribeiro.

Their striking would be on a similar level, and their takedown defenses are not good enough to keep this a sloppy striking match. Aoki's best chance of winning this is by taking initiative, taking Shaolin down and using GnP and attempting submissions with hope of earning a decision.

My Take:

Shaolin wins by decision, his grappling just being too much for Aoki to handle; one-dimensionalism not paying off yet again. The odds for this fight are insane; Aoki is 1.50 to Shaolin's 2.60. Betting on Shaolin offers crazy value.


Andre Galvao vs. Jason High
(76kg/168lbs)

André Galvao
3-0-0



+Mundials winner at 79-85kg in 2008 and 73-79kg in 2005
+Transitioned from gi grappling to no-gi grappling smoothly
+Trains at Black House with the best the world has to offer
+Very persistent with takedowns

-Not used any ground and pound
-Never been hit in competition
-Weak takedowns





Jason High
7-1-1



+Natural athleticism
+Slick submissions
+Big hitter

-Striking combinations very basic
-Chin may be questionable









Analysis:

Jason High is athletic, and packs power. He might be one of the tougher challenges Galvao faces in the GP. However, if Galvao swarms him every chance he gets, and does everthing he can to get High to the ground, it should only be a matter of time before a submission.

High is no slouch on the ground himself, his submission of Yuya Shirai fresh in mind, but Galvao is something else entirely. High is going to need to dance away from Galvao, and try to blast him with a power shot.

My Take:

Galvao by sub is the most likely outcome, High can't afford to let this one hit the mat for a minute. I don't think this will last beyond Round 1.

High is at 4.00, and Galvao is at 1.20, so if your betting on this fight alone, might be better to go for High, but Galvao is 4.00 to win the GP, and that isn't bad. High is 6.00 to win the GP.



Hayato 'Mach' Sakurai vs. Marius 'Raging Demon' Zaromskis
(76kg/168lbs)

Hayato Sakurai
35-8-2



+Powerful ground and pound
+ADCC winner in 1999
+Versatile kickboxer
+Extremely experienced

-Past his prime
-Motivation on and off
-Not light on his feet
-Keeps his gloves to low to defend strikes







Notable Wins:
Shinya Aoki (2009)
Joachim Hansen (2005)
Shinya Aoki (2005)
Frank Trigg (2000)



Marius Zaromskis
9-2-0



+Powerful kickboxer
+Makes great use of flying knees, backkicks and highkicks
+Fast on his feet
+Good ground and pound

-No grappling used so far
-Not that hard to take down when clinched with






Analysis:

This could be closer than people think. Zaromskis is a more powerful hitter than Sakurai and is faster and more versatile. I could see Sakurai getting KO'd if this stays standing, but with Zaromskis having been taken down by Ikemoto, Sakurai can do the same, but much better.

But don't forget how Gomi mauled Sakurai. If this stays standing, look for Zaromskis to spring an upset.

My Take:

Sakurai by submission, Round 2. Marius has an advantage striking but Sakurai is a better all rounder. That said, Sakurai is 1.15, and Zaromskis is 5.75.

Don't bet on Sakurai, even his odds to win the tournament outright are disgusting, at 1.67. Zaromskis comes in at an astonishing 12.00 to win outright, worth a small play.



Bonus pick: Galvao vs. Sakurai

If High or Marius win, ignore this. Sakurai is the worst matchup for Galvao, having an excellent submission defense good kickboxing and a decent sprawl. Galvao is one dimensional, but like Maia and Jacaré, that one dimension is so good.

Galvao trains at Black House, you know, Machida, Anderson, Nogueira, Jacaré...those guys. I think if he comes in with a good gameplan and refuses to do anything other than take Sakurai down, the same Sakurai who was submitted by Baron not long ago, this match should be his.

But Sakurai will be hard to control, probably being able to escape many submission attempts and repel many takedown shots, and threaten Galvao every minute with striking.

My Take:

Andre Galvao by submission, Round 2, becoming the first ever DREAM welterweight champion, pulling off a huge upset in the process.



Recap on GP odds to win outright

Marius Zaromskis
12.00

Hayato Sakurai
1.67

Andre Galvao
4.00

Jason High
6.00

Other (Seichi Ikemoto/Tarec Saffiedine)
6.00

UFC 100 - Full Card

UNDERCARD

Matt 'The Real One' Grice vs. Shannon Gugerty
(155lbs/70kg)


Matt Grice
9-2-0




+Strong wrestler

+Good top control

-Does not look comfortable striking

-Sub-par submission game









Shannon Gugerty
11-3-0




+Jiu Jitsu brown belt
+Some Muay Thai background

-Poor wrestling










Analysis:

Grice could be thought of as a lesser version of Mitsuhiro Ishida or Gray Maynard, being a wrestler with good top control and little ability to finish a fight, except probably without the awesome submission defense, which is pretty crucial.

Gugerty has an advantage on the feet or on the ground, so he Grice is going to need a good strategy here.


My Take:


Gugerty by sub, round 1. Grice is a wrestler and nothing else.



CB 'The Doberman' Dollaway vs. Tom 'The Filthy Mauler' Lawlor
(185lbs/84kg)


CB Dollaway
8-1-0



+NCAA All-American wrestler
+Passable striking and grappling

-Still one dimensional











Tom Lawlor
5-1-0



+Shoots for takedowns fast
+Works hard enough from top position
+Persistent with takedowns

-One-dimensional without submission or striking skills










Analysis:

Lawlor is pretty much a wrestler, being a 3-time National Wrestling Collegiate Association champion in college and an all state wrestler in high school. Bad matchup for him here, what with CB Dollaway being an All-American wrestler in college.

Neither have submission skills worth noting, but Dollaway has at least some striking, meaning he's better in the two areas where the fight will take place.

My Take:

Dollaway by unanimous decision, by being better than Lawlor at his strength, wrestling, and by using better stand-up.

Dong Hyun 'Stun Gun' Kim vs. Jonathan 'The Road Warrior' Goulet

(170lbs/77kg)

Dong Hyun Kim
11-0-1-1



+4th degree Judo black belt
+Extremely difficult to shake off in clinch
+Has a very good habit of taking the back

-Bad standup defense
-Weak cardio
-Very few successful submissions









Jonathan Goulet
22-10-0



+Jiu Jitsu purple belt
+Has the Basics of Muay Thai
+Decent takedowns

-Bad takedown defense
-Guard not hard to pass
-Basic defense standing

Analysis:

Goulet has striking in his favor, but will need to avoid the clinch like the plague. Kim took down Parisyan multiple times from the clinch and Parisyan is a Judo black belt. Kim will likely take Grant down and keep him there, but Grant may have a better chance of getting back up than Goulet would have had.

I don't see a submission win, nor a knockout for either fighter.

My Take:

I'll take Kim via unanimous decision, since I don't think Grant will be able to keep himself from being taken down.



Jon 'Bones' Jones vs. Jake O'Brien
(205lbs/93kg)

Jon Jones
8-0-0



+Junior College wrestling champion at Iowa
+Marvelous hip throws
+Good Thai Boxing
+Extreme reach advantage; stands at 6'4
+Confident enough to try rare techniques

-Bad cardio
-Inexperienced; may react badly to being hit









Jake O'Brien
11-2-0



+Three time high school champion wrestler
+Good ground control
+Persistent takedowns

-Shots horribly telegraphed
-Too tentative when in an opponents guard
-No submission wins
-Below average striking

Analysis:

Jon Jones is being watched carefully by hardcore fans that believe they have found a prodigy, a future champ, after he ragdolled Bonnar and almost KO'd him on several occasions. The 21-year old has certainly warranted their praise, but it will be a better test for him to fight O'Brien, who is a skilled wrestler and will not likely get thrown with ease.

O'Brien is a three time high school state wrestling champion, and has had a successful run at heavyweight, only to losing to Andrei Arlovski and Cain Velasquez, and having a good win over Heath Herring.

If Jones stops the takedown, he should take this, and with Jones being a Junior College wrestling champ himself, that should be very doable.

My Take:

I'm going to guess that Jones schools O'Brien in the standup, and that their wrestling cancels out, with Jones scoring a 2nd Round TKO.

That's what I expect, but with Jones at 1.20 and O'Brien at 4.00, there is no real value on Jones, and there's always hope that O'Brien will take some benefits of experience to defeat Jones, such as cardio.

Jim Miller vs. Mac Danzig (155lbs/70kg)

Jim Miller
13-2-0

+Very dangerous grappler
+Aggressive striking and good hand speed
+Extremely slick sweeps and submissions off back
+Aggressive from top position
+Great cardio

-Not much takedown defense
-Leaves himself open in stand-up defense







Mac Danzig

18-6-1

+Well rounded; possesses good sprawl, good striking and good grappling.
+Very aggressive ground and pound

-Does not excel in any one area
-Not good off back

Analysis:

Jim Miller is a ground specialist who has submitted a BJJ black belt in David Baron, and one of his biggest assets is that he fights at such a frenetic pace. Holes in his stand-up are made smaller by the fact that he charges for takedowns in the middle of his striking flurries, making it difficult to sprawl against.

Miller has only been beaten by Frank Edgar and Gray Maynard by decision, two great wrestlers with great sub-defense.

Danzig has a decent sprawl, but Mark Bocek took him down and was able to keep him there for a while. He will not want to repeat a performance like that against Miller.

My Take:

Miller by unanimous decision, but since he's at 1.53, I would feel better backing Danzig at 2.55.

Mark 'The Hammer' Coleman vs. Stephan 'The American Psycho' Bonnar
(205lbs/93kg)

Mark Coleman
15-9-0



+Came 7th in 1992 Olympics at the 100kg class; 2nd in FILA World Freestyle Wrestling Championship. Still one of the best wrestlers in MMA

-Zero cardio
-Years of competition and age have left him badly worn
-Ability to finish fights very suspect







Notable Wins:
Igor Vovchanchyn (2000)
Dan Severn (1997)



Stephan Bonnar
11-5-0



+Excellent heart and chin
+Good Jiu Jitsu
+Former Golden Gloves boxer

-Not much wrestling or takedown defense











Analysis:

Coleman is still one of the best wrestlers in MMA, but only for one round. Anymore than that, he simply is not able to continue due to horrible cardio that will not likely improve at this stage of his career, certainly not now that we have to add weight cutting into the mix. It was amazing that Shogun took so long to TKO him, based on how horrible his movement was.

I expect this to be similar, but with Bonnar having the cardio that Shogun lacked in UFC 93. Coleman will likely score a takedown or two, fail to do anything with it, and Bonnar will use his BJJ to stand, and he will punish Coleman in the standup.

My Take:

Bonnar by TKO, Round 3. Coleman has way too much mileage on him. Although even still, with Coleman at 3.85 and Bonnar at 1.27, it is sort of tempting to bet on Coleman.




MAIN CARD



Yoshiro Akiyama vs. Alan 'The Talent' Belcher
(185lbs/84kg)

Yoshiro Akiyama
12-1-0



+Very good judoka; gold medalist in the 2002 Asian Games
+Punches hard
+Slick enough with submissions

-Not light on his feet
-Does not have fast takedowns













Alan Belcher
14-5-0



+Competent Jiu Jitsu
+Knows how to KO

-Rudimentary takedown defense
-Poor boxing defense














Analysis:

Though Akiyama is a ground fighter, primarily, his inclination to strike and lack of explosive takedowns will probably mean that this stays a striking match. I give Akiyama an advantage in that department, as Belcher was being picked apart by Kang before Belcher got the guillotine.

Akiyama should have a decent advantage on the ground, but I wouldn't expect him to submit the BJJ purple belt, as Akiyama hasn't submitted a ranked opponent yet.

My Take:

Akiyama by unanimous decision, both by outstriking the American and by outworking him on the ground. Like a lot of the favourites on the card, though, Akiyama offers little value at 1.34, but Belcher may be worth a small play at 3.30.








Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago
(170lbs/77kg)

Jon Fitch
18-3-0



+As much heart as any MMA fighter
+Awesome chin
+Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Wonderful cardio

-Not that hard a hitter
-Not a great offensive wrestler









Notable Wins:
Diego Sanchez (2007)
Thiago Alves (2006)



Paulo Thiago



+Great chin
+Power puncher
+Jiu Jitsu black belt

-Does not have good defensive head movement or footwork -Striking combinations basic
-Questionable takedowns








Notable Wins:
Josh Koscheck (2009)

Analysis:

This could be a pretty closely contested affair. Thiago was unknown to every MMA fan in the northern hemisphere until he got the TKO over Josh Koscheck earlier this year, sending him into the welterweight rankings. Fitch has gone 8-0 in UFC, though without defeating many highly ranked opponents, as neither Sanchez nor Alves were highly ranked at the time.

Alves has a great chin, as Koscheck dropped a heavy bomb on him early, which did not stumble him. Fitch's chin however, survived a war from Georges St.Pierre, and will not likely get KO'd.

He's unlikely to get submitted too, being a BJJ black belt - he's probably a better wrestler than Thiago anyway, so it probably wont be an issue.

Thiago does throw hard, but was losing decisively to Koscheck before he got a TKO which was not conclusive. Fitch is understandably favourite for all these reasons, and after what happened to Koscheck, he won't take his opponent lightly.

Thiago does not have good striking combinations, and really, only KO'd Koscheck because Koscheck leaned into the uppercut. Doubtful he'll outstrike Fitch.

My Take:

Unless Thiago lands a Manhoef style haymaker, Fitch will dispose of him easily. Fitch by TKO, Round 2.

There is little value in Fitch at 1.20. Thiago might be worth small money at 4.00, but that would probably just be throwing money away, really.








Dan 'Hendo' Henderson vs. Michael 'The Count' Bisping
(185lbs/84kg)

Dan Henderson
24-7-0



+Olympian; qualified for the US greco-roman wrestling team in '92 and '96
+Big punching power
+Great sub defense
+Rock hard chin

-Bad cardio
-Tendency to stick head down and brawl
-Sometimes inaggressive when opponent is on their back
-No submissions






Notable Wins:
Rich Franklin (2009)
Rousimar Palhares (2008)
Wanderlei Silva (2007)
Vitor Belfort (2006)
Kazuo Misaki (2006)
Murilo Bustamante x2 (2005, 2003)
Ryo Chonan (2005)
Murilo Rua (2001)
Renzo Gracie (2001)
Renato Sobral (2000)
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (2000)
Carlos Newton (1998)



Michael Bisping
17-1-0



+Good cardio
+Good technical counterstriker; uses Muay Thai and kickboxing combinations well
+Great use of Muay Thai clinch

-Poor submission skill
-Does not have one strike KO power
-Questionable wrestling









Analysis:

Henderson is a 38 year old former olympian, who still hasn't had a (T)KO loss in his 31 fight career. Bisping is a relative newcomer, but at 29 years old and having 18 fights, he is not green at all.

A huge problem presents itself for Bisping, and that is how to stop Henderson's takedowns. He could probably win the standup simply by pulling the Misaki strategy and sticking and moving, but sooner or later, he is going to have to sprawl.

Considering Bisping/Hammil, it's hard to see how he'll deal with Henderson; one could only hope that Rampage was training wrestling with Bisping 24/7, but even then Bisping does not have Rampage's strength.

Bisping also is not known for submissions, and if Hendo puts him on his back, expect the American to use much more aggressive techniques than his usual mouth covering. Bisping is going to have to do what he did to Leben to win, stick and move, be elusive and above all else, avoid clinching.

My Take:

I expect this to look like Henderson/Franklin, with the American winning the first two rounds, putting the Englishman on his back, using some GnP and landing one or two big punches, and possibly gassing and losing the third, but doing enough to win convincingly and getting the unanimous decision.

Henderson enters at 1.43, while Bisping enters at 2.90. But Henderson is pretty much everything Matt Hammil is but much better. Henderson is a safe bet.




Georges 'Rush' St-Pierre vs. Thiago 'Pitbull' Alves
(170lbs/77kg)


Georges St.Pierre
18-2-0



+Olympic calibre wrestling
+Excellent blend of Kyokushin karate, boxing, and Muay Thai
+Explosive athlete
+Switches from striking to takedowns superbly
+Great training camp with brilliant gameplans
+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Ferocious ground and pound
+Excellent cardio

-May have trouble fighting under pressure
-Possible lack of heart









Notable Wins:
BJ Penn x2 (2009, 2006)
Jon Fitch (2008)
Matt Serra (2008)
Matt Hughes x2 (2007, 2006)
Josh Koscheck (2007)
Karo Parisyan (2004)



Thiago Alves
16-3-0



+Ferociously powerful striker
+Excellent Muay Thai combinations
+Probably the largest welterweight in the division
+Fantastic sprawl
+Very good at countering takedown attempts with knees

-Questionable cardio
-May have difficulty making weight
-No submissions - only submission win was by 'punches.'
-No offensive wrestling








Notable Wins:
Josh Koscheck (2008)
Matt Hughes (2008)
Karo Parisyan (2008)

Analysis:

Thiago Alves is the one man is Georges St.Pierre's way before he really has cleaned out the welterweight division, but it just so happens that this will likely be the toughest matchup there is.

Alves has a wonderful sprawl and very dangerous striking, meaning that he could cause GSP a ton of problems, and this should come down to whether Alves sprawl is better than GSP's takedowns or vice versa.

If Alves has enough confidance in his sprawl, he may open up with his Muay Thai, in which case he could do severe damage, but if he is put on his back successfully, and takes some GnP, then GSP will likely put him off balance, making him weary of being taken down, and thus fight defensively, and I could easily see GSP at that point outstriking him.

Another thing that has to be noted is that GSP has a black belt in BJJ, so there is a huge possiblity that Alves could get subbed on the ground, himsef being at purple belt level.

My Take:

If Alves outsprawls St.Pierre, he'll probably win, but if St.Pierre outwrestles Alves, he'll probably win. At the moment I am leaning towards Alves, and at 3.60 he is a solid underdog. Very little value in betting at GSP at 1.29.






Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir
(265lbs/120kg)

Brock Lesnar
3-1-0



+Excellent wrestler; 2000 NCAA Heavyweight champion
+Extremely dangerous punching power
+Very athletic; 285lbs frame, but still moves very explosively
+Huge reach advantage

-Questionable sub defense
-Unreliable cardio
-Slow handspeed
-No boxing footwork or head movement








Notable Wins:
Randy Couture (2008)
Heath Herring (2008)



Frank Mir
12-3-0



+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Excellent killer instinct
+Good kickboxing

-Questionable cardio
-Not fast on feet












Notable Wins:
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (2008)
Brock Lesnar (2008)
Tim Sylvia (2004)

Analysis:

This will likely be a boxing match for the first round or two, as Lesnar wil likely be unwilling to risk fighting in Mir's guard, and Mir will not likely try to take Lesnar down in the early rounds, blowing his load early.

The striking is pretty even, with Mir probably having slighting cleaner and more technical kickboxing, and Lesnar being the harder hitter, with one punch KO power.

Whoever wins the striking will likely win the fight. If Lesnar wins it, Mir will be forced to try to take him down, maybe through pulling guard, and if he's losing the standup, he likely will be too rocked and gassed to succeed. If Mir gains the edge, Lesnar will be forced to take him down, where Mir will have a great chance of subbing him.

My Take:

Lesnar may have an edge in standup, and he should be able to keep it off the ground. At 1.40, there's very little value in backing Lesnar.

But at 2.90, Mir is tempting. His standup looks good enough to damage Lesnar, and his ground game should be good enough to sub him if Lesnar reverts to wrestling instincts. At 2.90, Mir is a solid bet. Lesnar enters at 1.40