UFC 102: Couture vs. Nogueira

Brandon 'The Truth' Vera vs. Krzyzstof 'The Polish Experiment' Soszynski
(205lbs/93kg)

Brandon Vera
10-3-0



+Strong kicks
+Great Muay Thai combos that incorporate low/mid/high kicks
+Good Jiu Jitsu
+Wrestling background

-Mentally unpredictable, which can throw his game off severely











Kryzyzstof Soszynski
18-8-1



+Wrestling background
+Strength advantage and decent athleticism
+Hard hitter

-Slugs it out on the feet without much skill
-Average submission skill








Analysis:

Soszynski can win win this with a haymaker, but that's unlikely. He may try outwrestling Vera and working GnP, but he'll likely have trouble getting it to the ground, considering Vera's high school wrestling experience.

If it stays standing, Vera should be able to tear Soszynski a new one, and if anyone is getting submitted in this one, it'll probably be the Pole. Soszynski looks to at least have a natural strength advantage on his side, and I'm not just saying that because he used to be a bodybuilder and pro wrestler, but is that going to be enough?

My Take:

Gotta go with Vera by TKO, Round 1, even an unmotivated Vera is still good enough to take Soszynski I think.

Vera enters at 1.47 while Soszynski enters at 2.75. I'll take Vera with a parlay.

Chris 'The Crippler' Leben vs. Jake Rosholt
(185lbs/84kg)

Chris Leben
18-6-0



+Iron jaw
+Very heavy hitter, with one-punch KO power
+Decent cardio

-Bad submission skills
-Questionable wrestling
-Brawls too much










Jake Rosholt
5-1-0



+NCAA Division I wrestling champion in 2003 at 184lbs and in 2005 and 2007 at 197lbs, as well as being a 4-time All American
+Good ground control

-Beginner striking
-Little to no submission skill

Analysis:

Rosholt is an extremely good wrestler and not much else, so his modus operandi is simple: take him down and don't let him back up.

Leben's iron jaw will prevent him from being finished, so Rosholt is going to have to pin him down for the decision, because he won't submit him either.

Leben isn't the best wrestler on earth, but one punch on the way in is all he needs to put Rosholt's lights out.

My Take:

Rosholt by Velasquez/Kongo style beating, winning a UD and surviving the striking portion.

Leben enters at 1.74 while Rosholt is at 2.05, so I'll take Rosholt.


Demian Maia vs. Nate 'The Great' Marquardt
(185lbs/84kg)



Nate Marquardt
28-8-2



+Great wrestler
+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Great ground and pound
+Powerful and unpredictable striking

-Sometimes overaggressive and brawls or even fouls
-Does not fight well under pressure

Notable Wins:

Wilson Gouveia (2009)

Kazuo Misaki x2(2004, 2002)

Demian Maia
10-0-0



+Gold medal at ADCC 2007 at 87kg, silver medal in 2005 at 87kg, as well as impressive Mundials showings
+Has little trouble getting fights to the ground, and is very good at pulling guard

-Striking extremely questionable
-Conventional wrestling not a strong point











Analysis:

Maia is one of the best Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belts there is, and I'm confident when I say that Marquardt, a BJJ black belt himself, will not want this to go to the ground.

The American has a good chance to keep it standing, being a much better wrestler than Maia and a much better striker, too. Only way Maia brings it to the ground is by pulling guard. That might be particularly risky against Marquardt, who has some wicked GnP.

Marquardt has some big advantages here; his striking is good enough to pressure Maia when they're on the feet, his wrestling is good enough to keep it off and to stand back up when he is on the ground, and BJJ is good enough to avoid submission when it does hit the ground.

My Take:

Gotta go with the more well rounded Marquardt, who should be able to stay out of harm's way using his wrestling and get the KO on the feet.

Marquardt enters at 1.57, while Maia is at 2.45. I'm fairly confident in Marquardt but that is a huge difference in value. I'll choose to take a parlay with Marquardt.


'The Dean of Mean' Keith Jardine vs. Thiago Silva
(205lbs/93kg)



Keith Jardine
14-5-1



+Good, unorthodox kickboxing
+Excellent low kicks
+Elite sparring partners

-No offensive wrestling
-Defense is pretty open in close range, relies on keeping distance

-Questionable grappling

Notable Wins:

Chuck Liddell(2007)

Thiago Silva
13-1-0



+Brazilian Jiu Jistu black belt
+Vicious ground and pound
+Punches pack power

-Defense is horribly open
-Striking is at beginner's level
-Slow on his feet





Analysis:

Thiago Silva punches hard, but he's not exactly a good striker, with his combinations consisting more of ones than one-twos, and there's no shortage of examples of him getting schooled on the feet for considerable periods of time. The Dean should take him apart standing, provided he does not get sucker punched, so Thiago will probably try to get this to the mat if he's smart.

I don't think he'll find it as easy as that, though. Jardine hasn't fought the best wrestlers in the world, but sparring with GSP, Evans and Marquardt is reason enough that I'm going to guess he can sprawl out of Thiago's takedowns.

My Take:

Jardine by knockout, taking advantage of Thiago's very lax defense. People think Jardine has a glass chin, but he's only been dropped by rocket-like punches, and Thiago's is certainly no better. Thiago threatens on the ground, but I gotta take the Dean.

Jardine enters at 1.69, while Silva is at 2.19, but I'm relying on Jardine to get the job done. I'd advise backing him with Marquardt.

Randy 'The Natural' Couture vs. Antonio Rodrigo 'Minotauro' Nogueira
(265lbs/120kg)

Randy Couture
16-9-0



+Olympic calibre Greco-Roman wrestler
+Very good boxing; good combinations and great head movement
+The master of dirty boxing
+Excellent submission defence
+Great at scrambling and standing back up

-No offensive submission game
-Light puncher
-46 years old
-May have interference from other projects
-Not a versatile striker

Notable Wins:

Gabriel Gonzaga (2007)

Tim Sylvia (2007)

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

31-5-1-1



+Great chin and recovery
+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Jiu Jitsu very well adapted towards MMA, with a very dangerous guard
+Limitless heart

-Weak wrestling
-Coming back after staph, and knee surgery
-Powerless stand-up
-Has taken more punishment than almost any MMA fighter






Notable Wins:

Tim Sylvia (2008)

Heath Herring x3 (2007, 2004, 2001)
Josh Barnett (2006)
Fabricio Werdum (2006)

Sergei Kharitonov (2004)

Mirko Cro Cop (2003)
Ricco Rodriguez (2003)

Mark Coleman (2001)

Analysis:

Randy Couture is an Olympian in Greco-Roman wrestling, and he possesses greater wrestling than any of Nogueira's past opponents with the exception of Mark Coleman. Understandably, Nogueira faces a gigantic problem in this regard; if Couture's fight with Lesnar has proven anything, it's that The Natural is very difficult to keep down and has an excellent sprawl. I'd be surprised if Nogueira takes Couture down once, so I think he'll be forced to pull guard.

But what Coleman didn't have was sub defense, which Couture has plenty of - no one avoids submission from Jacaré in a grappling match without it. Couture also has very good, though not that powerful, boxing, and should have no problem outpointing Nogueira on the feet. Especially considering that Nogueira looked shot in his fight against Frank Mir, and, while he was once a good boxer, does not seem to be able to avoid blows or string combinations together anymore.

I don't think these problems are going to get any better; Nogueira has come through battling staph, and has had knee surgery since he lost to Mir. And aside from that, the guy has been through too much. Every time you take a hard blow, your brain gets rattled, and every time it does, it gets a little looser, easier to rattle again.

I believe Couture should show up in shape, unless his filming of 'The Expendables' sets off his training.

My Take:

It's sad saying it, but I really don't see Nogueira pulling this off. I don't ever see him reclaiming his former glory, and I don't think that fighting top competition at this point will do anything good for his health. It's not just one fight either, he has been looking more and more sluggish, more easily rattled.

He's in danger of traveling the same path as Enson Inoue at this point. So I'd love him to prove me wrong, but don't count on it.

Couture enters at 1.54, while Nogueira is at 2.55. I'll take Couture, whether by himself or in conjunction with Vera.

Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg

Just a quick note before we start, this time we're using sportsbook.com's odds, as bodog had some trouble getting the new lines in on time.

Jesse 'JT' Money vs. Jay 'The Thoroughbred' Hieron
(170lbs/77kg)

Jesse Taylor
13-3-0



+State champion wrestler in junior college, NCAA Division I qualifier
+Fights at a hardcore pace
+Cannot be deterred with takedowns
+Good ground and pound

-Telegraphed shots
-Took the fight on less than a week's notice
-Very basic striking
-Grappling rudimentary






Jay Hieron
17-4-0



+National Junior College wrestling champion and State wrestling champion
+Significant height and reach
+Good footwork that makes great use of angles
+Hard and fast hitter

-Questionable chin
-Grappling could be improved
-Training for a different opponent in Nick Diaz until last week








Analysis:

Hieron is certainly the more well rounded of the two when compared to the somewhat one-dimensional Taylor, but that won't come into play if Taylor forces Hieron into that one-dimension.

It seems like the wrestling is pretty even, with Hieron having a better Junior College record, but Taylor qualifying for NCAA division I after. It's worth noting that Hieron's wrestling career was stilted by marijuana use, however.

Given Taylor's frenzied pace and doggedness with takedowns, I would be surprised if we didn't see Hieron on his back for a while, but the question is will he be able to stand up?

If he can keep it standing, he really should take out Taylor.

My Take:

Tough call, but I would expect Hieron to be able to keep this standing given his impressive wrestling pedigree and get the KO.

But with Hieron entering at 1.49 and Taylor at 2.65, it wouldn't be prudent to back Hieron on his own. Parlay, perhaps.



Mitsuhiro 'Endless Fighter' Ishida vs. Gilbert 'El Nino' Mendelez
(155lbs/70kg)


Mitsuhiro Ishida
18-5-1



+Good wrestler
+Nearly unsubmittable
+Great top control
+Some of the best cardio in the business

-Very inaggressive from top position, with 13 of his wins coming by decision
-Took fight on short notice
-Not a good striker
-Telegraphed shots





Notable Wins:
Gilbert Mendelez (2007)
Marcus Aurelio (2006)



Gilbert Mendelez
15-2-0



+Good striking that packs a punch
+Dangerous off his back
+Good at standing back up
+Good wrestler

-Sometimes brawls
-Training for Josh Thomson












Analysis:

Ishida-Mendelez No.1 ended in a unanimous, but hard fought, decision for the Endless Fighter. Has that much changed? Can Mendelez resist Ishida's static ground control?

He didn't do a good job of keeping his feet against Ishida the first time, so I'm sure that's something he's working on. He had some decent attempts off his back in the first fight, so he'll obviously try and repeat that.

One thing that is being ignored is that this fight is taking place in a cage, and while fighters that come from Japanese promotions don't have a great reputation for doing great in cages, wrestlers do, and I think Ishida has a secret advantage in this regard.

But there is another severe disadvantage. American promotions have five five minute rounds for title fights, and each on of those rounds starts standing.

Even still, Mendelez will almost certainly spend at least 80% of the fight on his back in this fight if it goes any length of time, so he'll need to work on his submissions/sweeps, because I don't see Ishida making the same mistake he did against Hirota.

My Take:

Ishida by split decision, taking down Mendelez with the aid of the cage, avoiding the standup and escaping the submissions, to become the Strikeforce lightweight champion in a fast paced but dull fight.

Bizarrely enough, Ishida is the underdog, entering at a whopping 2.55, compared to Mendelez' 1.54. Somewhat reminiscent of the odds from Liddell-Rampage 2.




Gegard Mousasi vs. Renato 'Babalu' Sobral
(205lbs/93kg)



Gegard Mousasi
25-2-1



+Excellent technical boxing/kickboxing, being a Dutch amateur boxing champion
+Highly strategic fighter
+Very competent on the ground

-Questionable takedown defense and wrestling in general











Renato Sobral
32-8-0



+Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Very persistent with takedowns
+Decent striking
+Very aggressive from top position

-Too happy to pull guard
-Low quality takedowns








Analysis:

Babalu has a considerable advantage on the ground, Mousasi has a considerable advantage standing. Mousasi's respective advantage is Babalu's weakness, who has but three (T)KO's to his name, one of which was a cut stoppage.

Mousasi howegver has nine submissions to his name, including Jiu Jitsu black belt Denis Kang. Mousasi's half guard did a very good job of clamping down on Jacaré's grappling, for the minute or so that there was of it, and Jacaré is lightyears ahead of Babalu in terms of pure Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. I think he'll survive the ground game a lot easier than Sobral will survive the standup game.

My Take:

Mousasi by TKO, Round 2, becoming the new Strikeforce lightheavyweight champion. Mousasi's striking is better than Sobral's in every way, and I think this will be critical during the times that they are exchanging.

Sobral will probably try to smother him in attempts to get takedowns, but I don't see him doing much with them even if they are successful - not enough to prevent Mousasi earning a standup at least. Also, while Sobral is a good wrestler, Mousasi's footwork and Babalu's lack thereof will make it more difficult for the Brazilian to close the distance.

Mousasi enters at 1.38, while Babalu comes in at 3.00. As a general rule, it's very hard to justify backing Mousasi at those odds by himself.

With that said, I'll take Mousasi at a parlay with Jay Hieron, because I don't see Babalu winning this at all.




Gina 'Conviction' Carano vs. Cristiane 'Cyborg' Santos
(145lbs/66kg)



Gina Carano
7-0-0



+Good sprawl, having trained at Extreme Couture

+Throws hard

+Successful Muay Thai background
+Good ground and pound

-Defense too open
-Has severe problems making weight








Cristiane Santos
7-1-0



+Knockout power
+Significant strength advantage
+Accurate shots, at least at first
+Good Muay Thai clinch

-Not a good wrestler
-Low-skill grappler
-Could improve cardio
-Has problems making weight

Analysis:

This is the first women's MMA bout I've predicted. Well, same rules apply.

Santos is a Chute Boxe fighter, and that usually means two things: ferocious aggressive striking, and primitive combinations.

Can't say Cyborg really strays too far from the mould, having never lost a bout on the feet, and having all seven wins come by way of (T)KO. Having only lost once by submission, seven fights ago (Santos' debut), Cyborg seems to be the archetypal Chute Boxer.

Carano is pretty well versed in Muay Thai as well, and has won three fights by (T)KO, and one by submission, but still doesn't punch the same force as the Brazilian. And I'm going to guess this stays standing, since neither Carano nor Santos have much wrestling pedigree, ansd they match up fairly even in size so no one will get ragdolled.

Seems like the old stereotypical battle of power and ferocity vs. technique and strategy.

My Take:

This is closer than the odds indicate. If Cyborg wins it'll have to either first or second round TKO, because I see Carano having a distinct cardio advantage come round 3 - the Chute Boxe style is not beneficial to cardio.

Very difficult to decide, but I think Carano should have enough defense to avoid getting KO'd, and should win the rest of the fight, getting a TKO in the 4th.

Carano enters in at 2.50, while Cyborg at 1.53, so Carano is a very live underdog.

UFC 101: Declaration

Josh 'The Dentist' Neer vs. Kurt 'Batman' Pellegrino
(155lbs/70kg)

Josh Neer
25-7-1

+Excellent clinch game, complete with Greco-Roman, dirty boxing and Muay Thai clinch
+Pretty good chin

-Questionable sprawl
-Not a good ground fighter








Kurt Pellegrino
13-4-0



+BJJ black belt under Hermes Franca
+Never (T)KO'd
+Decent ground and pound
+Wrestling background

-Not very mobile when striking
-Takedowns are not fast or powerful










Analysis:

Pellegrino is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu under Hermes Franca, but not all black belts are created equal, especially considering he got submitted by brown belt Nate Diaz.

Nonetheless, he's still got an obvious grappling advantage over Neer. Neer has a very good clinch game which he used very well against Nate Diaz, and Pellegrino is a similar enough fighter to Nate, so I would expect this to be another close run fight which could go either way.

My Take:

I'd guess that Neer would outwork Grove for a split decision victory. Neer enters at 1.40, and Pellegrino at 2.90, which is odd for such a close fight, and I would feel better going against myself and picking Pellegrino.



Ricardo 'Cachoarro' Almeida vs. Kendall 'Da Spyder' Grove
(185lbs/84kg)

Ricardo Almeida

10-3-0



+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Prestigious ADCC career
+Very good ground and pound

+Good at jumping guard

-Weak wrestling

-Beginner level striker

-Bad cardio

Kendall Grove
10-5-0

+Stands at 6'6, tall with a mighty reach advantage
+Very competent striker with a good Muay Thai clinch
+Good enough ground game
+Decent sprawl

-Striking defense is suspect
-Somewhat slow on the feet
-Not a tremendously hard hitter











Analysis:

If Almeida takes Grove down, the American will be lucky to survive the round with the third degree BJJ black belt (awarded by Renzo Gracie) on top of him. But like many world class grapplers, wrestling is Almeida's achilles. Grove is 6'6, which would be tall for a heavyweight, and is gigantic for a middleweight.

Almeida is good at jumping guard, but he'll find that difficult given the sheer distance he has to close between himself and his opponent. If he doesn't get a submission in round one, I don't see him having the energy to go and get a submission in the second or third.

Grove isn't bad on the mat himself, having most of his wins by submission, but he'll still try to avoid Almeida like the plague. Expect boos, many of them.

My Take:

Grove by unanimous, Tim Sylvia-esque, decision, surviving scares and continuing to pop away at Almeida. Almeida enters at 1.62, while Grove comes in at 2.30, so of course I believe Grove to be a smarter play.

Amir Sadollah vs. Johnny Hendricks
(170lbs/77kg)

Amir Sadollah

1-0-0



+Extremely slick with submissions
+Excellent Muay Thai, with great speed, combiations, power and a likng for high kicks

-Has not competed in more than a year
-Very green
-Not a good wrestler
-Coming back off injuries







Johnny Hendricks
5-0-0

+2005 and 2006 NCAA Division I wrestling champion and 2007 runner up
+Hard hitter

-Weak cardio
-Not a refined striker
-Unknown if he will be able to go about finishing good opponents or if he will resort to lay and pray









Analysis:

Sadollah may be slick on the ground, but I think that's where Hendricks is going to need to take this to keep it competitive. Sadollah is a vicous Tahi boxer and will leave Hendricks in a heap if this stays up.

Hendricks has some decent finishes to his name, but nothing against good opponents, and I would be very surprised if he finished Sadollah, but that may be his best option; I don't know if he has the cardio or submission defense to lay and pray him for fifteen minutes.

My Take:

Sadollah by submission, Round 2. Both enter at 1.87, so I'll be taking Sadollah.



Anderson 'The Spider' Silva vs. Forrest Griffin
(205lbs/93kg)

Forrest Griffin
16-5-0



+Very large , standing at 6'3, and with the largest frame in the light heavyweight division
+Good at hit and move striking, utilising low kicks and jabs
+Great heart
+Solid chin
+Good on the ground
+Excellent cardio

-Feather-fisted
-Not good off his back
-Not a great wrestler






Notable Wins:
Quinton Jackson (2008)
Mauricio 'Shogun' Rua (2007)


Anderson Silva
24-4-0



+Lethal Muay Thai; precise and powerful, and extremely unpredictable
+Awesome chin
+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Use of footwork and head movement make him very hard to hit
+Good cardio
+Very good defensive guard

-May not be motivated anymore
-Not a good offensive wrestler





Notable Wins:
Dan Henderson (2008)
Rich Franklin x2 (2007, 2006)
Nate Marquardt (2007)
Hayato Sakurai (2001)


Analysis:

If Forrest wins this it'll be on the ground where he is underrated, because I don't see him bothering Anderson with his stick and move Misaki-style striking, which is very light in all honesty. Anderson is a better striker than anyone Forrest has ever faced, and while Griffin pulls a fair share of upsets, this will be one of his toughest fights.

Griffin may be able to control him on the ground and rack up points without submitting him, but I don't see him being able to do that for long; Griffin is not a wrestler, he just has a heavy size advantage. Anyway, he'll find it hard to close the distance for takedowns given Anderson's speed and evasiveness.

Only thing to look out for is Anderson's seeming despondence which was apparent with Leites. If he displays the same lethargy Griffin will likely outpoint him for a unanimous decision.

My Take:

Anderson by KO, Round 2. I don't believe that he's going to punch Forrest in the leg or anything like that, I think he's going to systematically destroy him like he did to Franklin.

Anderson enters at 1.20, while Griffin enters at 4.00, so not much value on Silva here. Wouldn't back him on his own, but maybe a combined bet with another sure thing...

BJ 'The Prodigy' Penn vs. Kenny 'Ken-Flo' Florian
(155lbs/70kg)


BJ Penn
13-5-1

+Excellent technical boxing with great crosses and jabs
+Powerful hitter
+2000 Mundials champion of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu at black belt and a great guard
+Excellent jaw
+Very tough skin, only cut once
+Awesome takedown defense

-Could improve offensive wrestling
-Focus has always been hit and miss
-Overall Thai Boxing not great
-Does not check low kicks





Notable Wins:
Sean Sherk (2008)
Matt Hughes (2004)
Takanori Gomi (2003)
Caol Uno (2001)



Kenny Florian

11-3-0



+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Good Muay Thai, with good elbows
+Elusive on the feet
+Excellent ground and pound

-Not good at close range striking
-Not a good wrestler
-Not good off back
-Not a KO artist









Analysis:

Penn has a distinct advantage on the mat, and has an awesome sprawl, so don't expect to see him on his back in this one. Even if he is, Penn's defensive guard - which has only been passed a couple of times - should be good enough to counter Florian's GnP and to stand back up. I'm guessing this should be a battle between Penn's boxing and Florian's Muay Thai.

At least it shouldn't be as lopsided an affair as the standup battle with Sean Sherk, who's T-Rex arms could barely reach Penn's chin, but the Sherk fight did highlight that Penn's defense is boxing orientated and did seem to have trouble checking them. Perhaps that's Florian's strategy, but he'll likely get tagged by a jab if he doesn't protect himself while he's throwing them.

Florian does not like getting pressured in close fighting, and Penn's quick combos could spell severe danger for him. Florian will have to try a Misaki-style fight if he wants to beat Penn, I believe.

My Take:

Florian really isn't as good a striker as Penn, maybe a little lighter on his feet, and with a few more kicks, but that's it. Can't see him frustrating Penn for very long, even if he tries to stick and move, I see Penn tagging him and finishing him in Round 3.

Penn enters at 1.36, while Florian enters at 3.20, so not much value on the Hawaiian on his own, but could be profitable enough when placing a multiplier with Anderson Silva.