Bob 'The Beast' Sapp vs Ikuhisa 'The Punk' Minowa
Bob Sapp9-3-1
+350lb, musclebound frame
+Can punch hard, albeit slow
-No heart
-No pain tolerance
-Horrible cardio
-Poor discipline; has displayed inability to follow rules
Ikuhisa Minowa41-30-8
+ Heart and determination
+Good submission game
-Tremendously undersized for an openweight tournament
-Plays to the crowd, resulting in flashy, useless moves
-Basic standup
Notable Wins:
Gilbert Yvel (2005)
Analysis:
Bizarre. The undersized 181lb Minowa will be hard pressed to land a submission against his 350lb opponent, as the American would likely simply power out of every submission, like with Nogueira, even if that was seven years ago.
Even if he does get Sapp down, it's likely he'll find it next to impossible to keep him there. Sapp has a massive advantage standing, and it's going to be crucial for him to try and get this to the ground somehow. But Minowa couldn't beat Zuluzinho, and Zulu was just a fat, unathetic, Brazilian Sapp.
My Take:
Sapp will not likely get subbed. He'll probably clobber Minowa standing and Minowa's guard will not likely be good enough to keep him protected from any GnP. Sapp by KO, Round 1 through retarded size advantage.
Minowa enters at €2.60 and Sapp at €1.50, but I don't see Minowa winning. Sapp is a better bet.
Hong Man Choi vs José Canseco
(Openweight)
Hong Man Choi1-2-0
+Enormous reach advantage, stands at 7'2
+Good chin
+Good heart
-Horrendous mobility
-Terrible standup
-No ground game
-No GnP
José Canseco0-0-0
-No MMA skills whatsoever
Analysis:
Choi is an MMA fighter. A bad one, with no ground game, poor standup, and one who walks like a zombie, but an MMA fighter nonetheless. Canseco is a retired baseball player, with no MMA experience, and barely any fighting experience whatsoever.
Canseco might survive for a while by running and keeping distance, but Choi will very likely knock him down and finish him after a while, and that will be that.
My Take:
No point in betting on Canseco, Choi is pretty much a safe bet. Shame it isn't listed on any sportsbooks I could find.
Jan 'The Giant' Nortje vs Rameau Thierry 'The African Assassin' Sokoudjou
(Openweight)
Jan Nortje2-5-0
+Big puncher
+Very large reach, stands at 6'10
-Bad Cardio
-No ground game
-No wrestling
-Plodding standup without footwork or head movement
Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou5-4-0
+Severe punching/kicking power
+Judo background
-Bad cardio
-Sub-par ground game
-Poor heart
Notable wins:
Ricardo Arona (2007)
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (2007)
Analysis:
This should be over quickly. Both men start strong and fade in later rounds. Both are big hitters, both have a poor ground game.
Sokoudjou suffers from tremendous size disadvantage. He has better movement than the plodding Nortje, and it's easily possible for him to put the giant down if he connects right. But with Nortje at 6'10, that might be difficult - it was difficult for Peter Aerts.
But Nortje is a kickboxer, with absolutely no ground game. And Sokoudjou has one. A minute one, but it still exists. This is a huge advantage.
My Take:
MMA fighter vs kickboxer, MMA fighter should win, I think Sokoudjou will win by GnP TKO or sub, even.
But Sokoudjou is €1.38, which is too heavy a favourite, especially with someone who hits as hard as Nortje, who comes in a €3.00, a very practical price.
Gegard 'The Young Vagabond' Mousasi vs Mark 'Super Samoan' Hunt
(Openweight)
Gegard Mousasi24-2-1
+Technical and high quality boxer/kickboxer; Dutch amateur boxing champion
+Good sub defense
+Strategic fighter
-Takedowns and takedowns defense need improvement
Notable wins:
Ronaldo 'Jacaré' de Souza (2008)
Mark Hunt5-5-0
+Marvellous chin
+Still probably has most of his punching intact
+K-1 World Grand Prix winner in 2001
-Apalling wrestling skill
-Terrible submission skill
-In a tremenous downwward spiral; KO'd by Manhoef at NYE, didn't win once in 2008.
Notable wins:
Wanderlei Silva (2005)
Mirko 'Cro Cop' Filipovic (2005)
Analysis:
Mousasi's entry into the 'Super Hulk Tounament' comes against one of its most difficult participants, one who isn't a freakish giant or a baseball player.
Expect a much more powerful Mousasi to turn up against Hunt, and expect him to take advantage of the fact that Hunt has a horrendous takedown defense - Wanderlei Silva took him down plenty - and use his grappling if things go bad on the feet.
There is also the question if Hunt can take the punishment he once could. Too many haymakers and high kicks?
My Take:
I expect Mousasi to win this via technical striking advantage or by sub. Unless Hunt lands something massive - which is a real possibility - this should be Gegard's fight, and this is reflected in him coming in at €1.54.
But Hunt still has power, and is a decent underdog bet at €2.55.
Gesias 'JZ' Calvancante vs Tatsuya 'Crusher' Kawajiri
(70kg/154lbs)
Gesias Calvancante14-2-1-1
+Brutal knockout power
+Complete standup
+Competent ground fighter
+Decent wrestler
-Not strategic
-Maybe lacks heart
Notable wins:
Vitor Ribeiro 2007)
Caol Uno (2006)
Rani Yahya (2006)
Tatsuya Kawajiri23-5-2
+Good wrestler
+Good chin
+Swings with force
-Standup defense wide open
-Not a high quality, complete striker
Notable wins:
Vitor Ribeiro (2004)
Analysis:
Calvancante has cleaner and more powerful striking than Kawajiri, and if it stays standing, he'll likely do what Eddie Alvarez did in the 2008 Lightweight GP and TKO him.
I doubt Kawajiri will be able to do much to him on the ground, and I expect them to be stood up after Crusher's takedowns resulting in inactivity.
I definitely would expect a finish, most likely a KO of the night finish.
My Take:
Calvancante's fight to lose, he comes in at €1.56, and his Japanese opponent at €2.60. I think Calvancante should really be able to pull this off, and at this point, I think he's better value than Kawajiri.
Hideo Tokoro vs. Abel Cullum
(63kg/139lbs)
Hideo Tokoro 21-16-1
+Very good off back
+Decent stand up
-Defensive holes in standup
-No great wrestling
Abel Cullum
+Very good off back
+Decent stand up
-Defensive holes in standup
-No great wrestling
Abel Cullum14-2-0
+Very dogged with takedowns
+Great sub game
+Decent standup
-Takedowns still nothing incredible
Analysis:
Tokoro is more dangerous of his back than Wicky, but he lacks the same ability to scramble out from under opponents. Cullum has never been subbed and I would be surprised if Tokoro managed it.
However he could try to avoid the ground and stay standing, where he has an advantage over the American, which he will find hard to do with Cullum's persistent takedowns. He will need to use his grappling smartly to get up when he is put on his back.
My Take:
I'll tke Cullum in a largely uninteresting fight, constisting of Cullum taking Tokoro down, using some GnP, and winning a decision. Cullum was never subbed, and I doubt Tokoro will do it.
Both come in at €1.87.
Yoshiro Maeda vs Hiroyuki 'Streetfight Bancho' Takaya
(63kg/139lbs)
Hiroyuki Takaya
+Very dogged with takedowns
+Great sub game
+Decent standup
-Takedowns still nothing incredible
Analysis:
Tokoro is more dangerous of his back than Wicky, but he lacks the same ability to scramble out from under opponents. Cullum has never been subbed and I would be surprised if Tokoro managed it.
However he could try to avoid the ground and stay standing, where he has an advantage over the American, which he will find hard to do with Cullum's persistent takedowns. He will need to use his grappling smartly to get up when he is put on his back.
My Take:
I'll tke Cullum in a largely uninteresting fight, constisting of Cullum taking Tokoro down, using some GnP, and winning a decision. Cullum was never subbed, and I doubt Tokoro will do it.
Both come in at €1.87.
Yoshiro Maeda vs Hiroyuki 'Streetfight Bancho' Takaya
(63kg/139lbs)
Hiroyuki Takaya 10-6-1
+Very good, technical boxer
+Good sprawl
+Very good, technical boxer
+Good sprawl
-No offensive sub game
-Sort of one dimensional
Yoshiro Maeda
24-6-2
Yoshiro Maeda24-6-2
+Vicious KO power, in all forms of striking
+Very versatile unpredictable striking
+Decent top control
-Not patient striker; spends too much time looking for one shot KO's.
-Huge defensive issues
Analysis:
Don't expect this to go to ground often; both are very good strikers that will likely produce an excellent show.
Maeda may be the more durable of the two, and survived a lot of punishment from Torres, and only being (T)KO'd by Charles Bennet and Daiki Hata, and beaten by doctor stoppage in the Torres fight.
Takaya has been (T)KO'd by Calvancante, Andre Amade, and Leonard Garcia, all hard hitters as well.
I don't think this will go to ground, neither are ground fighters, and will not have much advantage once there. Takaya has a great sprawl that Maeda won't get past, in any case.
My Take:
I'll take Takaya via unanimous decision and by exploiting Maeda's lack of head movement of defensiveness in general. Takaya enters at €2.60, while Maeda enters at €1.50.
Betting on Takaya highly advised.
Masakazu 'Ashikan Judokan' Imanari vs Bibiano 'The Flash' Fernandes
(63kg/139lbs)
Masakazu Imanari
16-6-1
+Best killer instinct in MMA
+Ferocious leg locks
-Bad striker
-Very one dimensional
Notable Wins:
Yoshiro Maeda (2005)
Mike Thomas Brown (2005)
Bibiano Fernandes
4-2-0
+No longer totally green to MMA
+Mundials super featherweight champion in 2006 and 2005
+Very good transition of grappling to MMA
+Very good at leeching to opponents
-Standup needs work
-Not a great wrestler
Analysis:
Bibiano has much better grappling credentials than Imanari, and that is crucial. Even in the standup I think he has a distinct advantage over his Japanese rival. How is Imanari going to win this?
His only hope is to try to get Fernandes in a leg lock, but I doubt that will happen with Fernandes' Jiu Jitsu. This is the worst matchup Imanari could have received.
My Take:
Bibiano takes this via grappling clinic. Even his weaknesses, wrestling and striking, are better that of Imanari.
Fernandes by unanimous decision. Even at €1.57, there is still value in betting of Bibiano here. Imanari comes in at €2.45
Norifumi 'KID' Yamamoto vs Joe Warren
(63kg/139lbs)
Norifumi Yamamoto
17-1-0-1
+World class wresting
+Very powerful hands
+Brutal ground and pound
+Excellent sub defense
+Brilliant kickboxing
-Coming after long layoff
-Not much submission skill - Guard can be passed
-Takedown defense not as good as credentials might suggest
Notable Wins:
Rani Yahya(2007)
Bibiano Fernades (2007)
Genki Sudo (2005)
Caol Uno (2005)
Joe Warren
1-0-0
+Probably the best wrestler in his weight class
+MMA debut out of the way
-Still incredibly inexperienced
-No submission skill
-Raw standup
-Completely untested
Notable Wins:
Chase Beebe (2009)
Analysis:
Warren's standup seemed decent enough against Beebe, but against KID, he won't get that far with it unless Yamamoto is fighting with a bust knee. If KID's healthy, this one is a great matchup for him. He should blitz Warren in the standup and even though Warren has better wresting, KID went to the tryouts for Beijing 2008, and Warren will hardly keep him down for long if he isn't injured.
My Take:
Warren better hope KID's knee is busted, because that's the only way he can take this one. Still, with KID at €1.15, and Warren at €5.50, that might just be worth it.
If KID is healthy, or anywhere near it, it'll be KID by violent KO.
Ronaldo 'Jacaré ' de Souza vs Jason 'Mayhem' Miller
(84kg/185lbs)
Ronaldo de Souza
9-2-0
+Open weight World Jiu Jitsu Champion in 2004 and 2005
+ADCC winner at 77-87kg in 2005. ADCC Openweight runner up in 2005.
+Relentless with takedowns
+Translated grappling very, very smoothly into MMA.
-Standup still an issue
Notable Wins:
Jason Miller (2008)
Jason Miller
22-6-0
+Excellent sub defense
+Very durable
+Decent grappler
-Wrestling needs improvement
Notable wins:
Robbie Lawler (2006)
Analysis:
Jacaré's combination of incredible jiu jitsu and relentless takedowns make a dangerous opponent for anyone, and this looks to be a favourable stylistic matchup for him. Mayhem didn't do much to stop the takedowns last time, and I don't see him doing much different in the rematch. Miller's advantage is in the standup, but not by much, and he didn't threaten Jacaré with it at all last time around.
My Take:
Bet on Jacaré, it's next to impossible to see Miller winning based on the last fight. Jacaré by sub, Round 1.
Even at Jacaré at €1.50 and Miller at €2.60, I stand by betting on Jacaré.
(63kg/139lbs)
Masakazu Imanari16-6-1
+Best killer instinct in MMA
+Ferocious leg locks
-Bad striker
-Very one dimensional
Notable Wins:
Yoshiro Maeda (2005)
Mike Thomas Brown (2005)
Bibiano Fernandes4-2-0
+No longer totally green to MMA
+Mundials super featherweight champion in 2006 and 2005
+Very good transition of grappling to MMA
+Very good at leeching to opponents
-Standup needs work
-Not a great wrestler
Analysis:
Bibiano has much better grappling credentials than Imanari, and that is crucial. Even in the standup I think he has a distinct advantage over his Japanese rival. How is Imanari going to win this?
His only hope is to try to get Fernandes in a leg lock, but I doubt that will happen with Fernandes' Jiu Jitsu. This is the worst matchup Imanari could have received.
My Take:
Bibiano takes this via grappling clinic. Even his weaknesses, wrestling and striking, are better that of Imanari.
Fernandes by unanimous decision. Even at €1.57, there is still value in betting of Bibiano here. Imanari comes in at €2.45
Norifumi 'KID' Yamamoto vs Joe Warren
(63kg/139lbs)
Norifumi Yamamoto17-1-0-1
+World class wresting
+Very powerful hands
+Brutal ground and pound
+Excellent sub defense
+Brilliant kickboxing
-Coming after long layoff
-Not much submission skill - Guard can be passed
-Takedown defense not as good as credentials might suggest
Notable Wins:
Rani Yahya(2007)
Bibiano Fernades (2007)
Genki Sudo (2005)
Caol Uno (2005)
Joe Warren1-0-0
+Probably the best wrestler in his weight class
+MMA debut out of the way
-Still incredibly inexperienced
-No submission skill
-Raw standup
-Completely untested
Notable Wins:
Chase Beebe (2009)
Analysis:
Warren's standup seemed decent enough against Beebe, but against KID, he won't get that far with it unless Yamamoto is fighting with a bust knee. If KID's healthy, this one is a great matchup for him. He should blitz Warren in the standup and even though Warren has better wresting, KID went to the tryouts for Beijing 2008, and Warren will hardly keep him down for long if he isn't injured.
My Take:
Warren better hope KID's knee is busted, because that's the only way he can take this one. Still, with KID at €1.15, and Warren at €5.50, that might just be worth it.
If KID is healthy, or anywhere near it, it'll be KID by violent KO.
Ronaldo 'Jacaré ' de Souza vs Jason 'Mayhem' Miller
(84kg/185lbs)
Ronaldo de Souza9-2-0
+Open weight World Jiu Jitsu Champion in 2004 and 2005
+ADCC winner at 77-87kg in 2005. ADCC Openweight runner up in 2005.
+Relentless with takedowns
+Translated grappling very, very smoothly into MMA.
-Standup still an issue
Notable Wins:
Jason Miller (2008)
Jason Miller 22-6-0
+Excellent sub defense
+Very durable
+Decent grappler
-Wrestling needs improvement
Notable wins:
Robbie Lawler (2006)
Analysis:
Jacaré's combination of incredible jiu jitsu and relentless takedowns make a dangerous opponent for anyone, and this looks to be a favourable stylistic matchup for him. Mayhem didn't do much to stop the takedowns last time, and I don't see him doing much different in the rematch. Miller's advantage is in the standup, but not by much, and he didn't threaten Jacaré with it at all last time around.
My Take:
Bet on Jacaré, it's next to impossible to see Miller winning based on the last fight. Jacaré by sub, Round 1.
Even at Jacaré at €1.50 and Miller at €2.60, I stand by betting on Jacaré.
