UFC 99: The Comeback - Main Card

Mirko 'Cro Cop' Filipovic vs. Mostapha Al-turk
(265lbs/120kg)

Mirko Flipovic
24-6-2



+Successful amateur and professional boxer; 40-5 amateur record, 12-5 professional record
+K-1 kickboxer, finishing with a 16-7 record, and wins over many K-1 champions
+Hits extremely hard

-Zero submission game
-Striking has been becoming primitive, relying on left high kick more than combinations
-Many injuries, leading to much inactivity over the last year



Notable Wins:
Josh Barnett x3 (2006, 2005, 2004)
Mark Coleman (2005)
Kevin Randleman (2004)
Igor Vovchanchyn (2000)





Mostapha al-Turk
6-4-0



+Shoots for takedowns well
+ADCC Europe winner
+Persistent in trying for takedowns

-Basic standup
-No submission wins, despite being a submission wrestler
-Weak takedowns







Analysis:

Even in Cro Cop's horrible state that started in 2007 and continued throughout 2008, it is hard to see him losing to al-Turk, who really does not offer anything dangerous at this point. It's hard to see this going any way other than similar to the Kongo/al-Turk fight.

Mirko's sprawl may not be what it was, since Overeem tossed him in their fight, but al-Turk is not Overeem, and if Mirko has trained, and has recovered for the most part from his injuries, he really should take this without breaking a sweat.

My Take:

In case you haven't figured out, I'm backing Cro Cop, even the 'new' Cro Cop. I know that it's risky betting on the favorite, but really, how does Cro Cop lose?

Mirko enters at 1.20, al-Turk massive underdog at 4.00.




Spencer 'King' Fisher vs. Caol 'Uno Shoten' Uno
(155lbs/70kg)

Spencer Fisher
22-4-0



+Highly aggressive striker
+Possesses heart
+Good off back

-Bad wrestling
-Guard is open to ground and pound








Caol Uno
25-11-4



+ADCC grappler with wonderful submission defense +Decent boxing technique
+Excellent takedown defense

-Leaves himself open in the standup





Notable Wins:
Mitsuhiro Ishida (2008)

Analysis:

Uno is a better wrestler and grappler than Fisher, and would have been a sure favourite to win this fight a few years ago - even now he still could easily take Spencer down and get the submission; he is the first and only person to submit Ishida, who was considered one of the 'unsubmittables' of MMA, so he has the skills to sub Fisher.

Uno has passable standup, enough to survive with Fisher if he fights smart and doesn't get bullrushed, but likewise, Fisher BJJ is also at a level where he should not get subbed as easy as that - a number of his wins are by submission.

If he doesn't fight smart, Fisher could take him out decisively with strikes.

My Take:

Uno by submission, wrestling Fisher down, wearing him down with GnP, and submitting him, Round 2.

Oddly enough, Fisher is heavy favorite at 1.48, while Uno is big underdog at 2.70.

Dan 'The Outlaw' Hardy vs. Marcus 'The Irish Hand Grenade' Davis
(170lbs/77kg)


Dan Hardy
21-6-0



+Hard and fast Muay Thai
+Light on his feet
+Has some Tae Kwon Do incorporated into his striking

-Jiu Jitsu blue belt
-No offensive wrestling











Marcus Davis
16-4-0



+Professional boxing experience
+Good chin and recovery time;never KO'd
+Good cardio

-Striking defense can get sloppy
-Does not excel at wrestling or grappling








Analysis:

This will be a real stand and banger, of that I have no doubt. Marcus Davis has a professional boxing record of 17-1-2, has a terrific chin, and punches hard. His ground game and wrestling are not good enough for him to want to do anything other than strike.

Same thing with Hardy, a BJJ blue belt, with a background in Tae Kwon Do, good Thai boxing, and became interested in MMA because of training with Shaolin monks. Both hit hard, so it's going to be an uncertain bet either way, and both have never been knocked out. After seeing Lytle vs. Davis and Taylor vs. Davis it's certain that Davis has a rock solid chin.

My Take:

I think Davis will win via heart and chin; their striking is on a pretty close level and it could end with one punch, so it'll probably be something like this that decides the outcome.

Davis is huge favorite at 1.47, and Hardy is big underdog at 2.75, and with a brawl like this, Hardy may be a good play.


Mike 'Quick' Swick vs. Ben 'Killa B' Saunders
(170lbs/77kg)


Mike Swick
13-2-0



+Good boxing/Thai boxing
+Good wrestler with good shoots
+Good takedown defense

-Not excellent at anything
-Very few submissions











Ben Saunders
7-0-2




+Excellent Thai Boxing with a lethal Muay Thai clinch +Decent Jiu Jitsu
+Decent sprawl

-Primarily a range fighter; does not look comfortable exchanging up close
-No head movement, and can be hit






Analysis:

Saunders has excellent kicks for long range and an even better Muay Thai clinch for very close range, but may have a weakness at the range in between, where punches are exchanged. Swick is a pretty well rounded striker/wrestler/grappler, without excelling in any field.

I believe if Saunders can keep it standing then it should be his fight, but if not, he'll end up dropping a unanimous decision. Saunders is a purple belt at BJJ, so he should at least be able to survive on the ground without suffering a TKO.

I think the ground games are too evenly matched for a submission in this one, but if there is a TKO I think it will come from the younger, unbeaten man in Saunders.

My Take:

Hard to choose; if Swick take him down he could keep him there for a while, winning a decision on the way, but standing I say Saunders has a big advantage. I'm going with Saunders by TKO, Round 3.

Little value with Swick, at 1.47, but Saunders enters with a good price at 2.75.





Cheick Kongo vs. Cain Velasquez (265lbs/120kg)

Cheick Kongo
14-4-1



+6'4, long reach
+Good combination of Muay Thai and Savate
+Powerful, technical striker

-Very average wrestler
-Frequently hits opponents with groin shots
-Questionable heart
-No submission skill






Cain Velasquez
5-0-0



+Very good wrestler
+Good aggressive ground and pound
+Good Jiu Jitsu

-Lack of experience
-Haven't seen that much of him standing or grappling yet








Analysis:

Kongo is a very tall, very muscular striker, but he won't outmuscle Velasquez. Velasquez is a much better wrestler than Herring, who controlled Kongo on the ground pretty well, and his GnP is considerably better than Herring's as well.

Kongo's sprawl is always improving, but has it improved enough to stop Velasquez' shots? Doubtful; Kongo will need to stay out of range and score a fast knockout. Probably try to limit kicks and clinching - unless it's to deliver a low blow.

My Take:

Velasquez should steamroll Kongo for his 6th consecutive (T)KO. Expect it to look like Herring/Kongo only with more GnP.

Having said that, with Kongo at 2.25, and Velasquez at 1.56, not sure it's worth backing Cain at those odds.



Wanderlei 'The Axe Murderer' Silva vs. Rich 'Ace' Franklin
(195lbs/89kg)


Wanderlei Silva
32-9-1



+Brutal punching power
+Vicious killer instinct
+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt

-One dimensional striker whose only offense consists of hooks
-Chin appears to have been weakened by so many brutal KO's
-Not a good wrestler







Notable Wins:
Keith Jardine (2008)
Kazuyuki Fujita (2006)
Ricardo Arona (2005)
Quinton Jackson x2 (2004, 2003)
Kazushi Sakuraba x3 (2003, 2001, 2001)
Dan Henderson (2000)




Rich Franklin
24-4-0



+Very good sprawl
+Solid and powerful kickboxing
+Great cardio
+Never been subbed; Brazilian Jiu Jitsu brown belt

-No offensive wrestling
-Takes time to find striking rythym





Analysis:

People sometimes discredit Franklin's chin. This is folly; he took a beating from Anderson and Machida before he went down. If he had a bad chin, he would have been out when Henderson hit him in the opening minutes of their fight.

Wanderlei, I don't think the same can be said for. Ever since the Cro Cop left high kick, his chin has not been looking good. A single punch from Henderson and Rampage were all that were needed to put his lights out.

Franklin will probably make use of this fact, using his technical kickboxing to score more blows and take advantage of Silva's suspect chin, and try to avoid eating a hook like the one that floored Jardine.

My Take:

I'll take Franklin by 3rd Round TKO, due to Wand's chin being shot, and him not really having any proper Muay Thai - all he throws is hooks.

Franklin is strong favorite at 1.69, while Wanderlei enters at 2.15. I am still taking Franklin on this one.

Strikeforce: Lawler vs. Shields Main Card

Kevin 'The Monster' Randleman vs. Mike Whitehead
(205lbs/86kg)


Kevin Randleman
17-12-0



+Good wrestling; NCAA title in 1997
+Strength still intact
+Still possesses punching power

-Bad on the ground
-Weak chin
-Does not use combinations; throws power hooks
-Second fight after recovering from staph





Notable Wins:
Mirko Filipovic (2004)
Renato Sobral (2002)



Mike Whitehead
23-6-0



+ADCC qualifier
+Three time All American wrestler

-Lacking quality striking













Analysis:

Randleman was a NCAA Division I champion back in 1997, but this is 2009, and Randleman is in the downward stage of his career. Following his 2006 first round submission loss to Shogun Rua, Randleman developed a severe staph infection, and only returned in an unconvincing decision win over Ryo Kawamura in 2008. His standup still probably packs a punch, but does not use combos or anything other than power punches. He does not have a good chin, and sub defense is nothing special.

Mike Whitehead was never a top tier fighter, but he at least has some ground skills and a wrestling base, but with limited striking - Babalu should not be able to outstrike any upper echelon light heavyweight. Whitehead is a lower tier fighter, with well roundedness, but without prominent skills in any area.

My Take:

While miles past his prime, Randleman shouldn't have trouble outwrestling Whitehead and getting the decision. But he is unpredictable, the Monster. He might end up diving into a submission.

Both Randleman and Whitehead enter at €1.87, so of course I advise betting on Randleman.


Phil 'The New York Badass' Baroni vs. Joe 'Diesel' Riggs
(170lbs/77kg)


Phil Baroni
13-10-0




+Decent boxing/kickboxing
+Punching power still there, for the most part

-Still no submission game
-Lax defense














Joe Riggs
29-10-0-1

+Former All American wrestler
+Knows how to punch

-Bad ground game
-Wrestling skill not on par with his credentials -Questionable chin









Analysis:

Phil Baroni, while past his best, possesses decent boxing, and still has decent punching power. Baroni, really, was never an evolved MMA fighter, without good ground skills and a record of 13-10, he was and is a one dimensional striker.

Which is why they matched him up with Joe Riggs, a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu blue belt. This is going to be a standup affair, with large likelihood of fireworks.

Riggs had a better record, 29-10, but never beat anyone of note - except for Nick Diaz in 2004. Riggs really does not have as much going for him as Baroni as a fighter.

My Take:

I'll take Baroni by KO, similar to Misaki, I think Riggs is too slow to wrestle with Baroni, and I give Baroni an edge in striking. Baroni enters at €1.91, while Riggs enters at €1.83.


Nick 'Bad Boy' Diaz vs. Scott 'Hands of Steel' Smith
(179lbs/81kg)


Nick Diaz
19-7-0



+Great heart
+Great chin
+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt
+Good boxer

-Tendency to smoke weed may lead to unpredictable side effects - and lead to 'Wins' being turned into 'No Contests.'
-Defense bad - conent to block punches with his face
-Not skilled in wrestling





Scott Smith
16-5-0



+Good striking power
+Decent overall striking

-Holes in defense
-Weak on the ground












Analysis:

Nick Diaz is a solid boxer with an awesome chin, who doesn't possess one punch KO power, but 100 punch KO power, i.e., he's content to pepper at his opponents until they fall down. Added to this, he is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt under Cesar Gracie, and has submitted Takanori Gomi using a gogoplata, while having a broken orbital and being high on marijuana.

Scott Smith is a KO puncher, with 13 of his 15 wins coming by (T)KO, but came up woefully short against Robbie Lawler last summer, and has had zero relevant wins. Smith is one dimensional brawler for the most part, with losses to James Irvin and Patrick Coté not reassuring.

My Take:

I see Diaz losing the standup, taking some punishment, the giving some, then winning the standup, then winning the fight by TKO. But with Diaz at €1.31, and Smith at €3.50, it's way too risky to bet on Diaz, especially since its not that hard to hit his jaw, and since Smith is a hard hitter.

I'd advise betting on Smith.





Andrei 'The Pitbull' Arlovski vs. Brett 'The Grim' Rogers
(265lbs/120kg)

Andrei Arlovski
15-6-0



+World class technical boxing technique; trains in one of the best boxing camps on earth
+Fast hands packing lethal knockout power
+Good kickboxing to complement
+Excellent sprawl
+International Master of Sports at Sport Sambo; won silver medal in World Sambo Championship and a silver medal in the Sambo World Cup in about 1999

-Questionable chin
-Psychological aspect may be an issue
-Can be overaggressive






Notable Wins:
Roy Nelson (2008)
Ben Rothwell (2008)
Tim Sylvia (2005)





Brett Rogers
9-0-0



+KO power in hands
+Size advantage; 6'5 and 265lbs

-Striking rough and unclean, constists of little more than hooks
-Bad sprawl
-No submission game










Analysis:

Arlovski is heavy favourite here and rightly so; he is one of the best boxers in MMA, and Rogers is nothing special as far as striking goes, and even less regarding the rest of his game.

Arlovski trains with Freddy Roach, a boxing trainer who trains/trained with the likes of Oscar de la Hoya, Manny Pacquiao, Mike Tyson and Wladimir Klitschko, and his standup seems a fluid and as explosive as ever. But one has to keep in mind how he reacted after his TKO loss to Tim Sylvia, in which he lost his killer instinct completely, and it wasn't until his demolition of Ben Rothwell in 2008 that he unleashed on his opponent without timidity.

My Take:

Only way Rogers takes this is by an extremely unlikely power shot to Arlovski's jaw. He may have the power to KO the Belorussian, but Arlovski's jaw, while not steel, isn't crystal. Rogers will need to land something significant to take him out.

Won't come to that in all likelihood. Arlovski by boxing clinic, KO, Round 1. Arlovski is at €1.20, while Rogers is massive underdog at €4.00. But there is such an incredible difference in their striking - not to mention ground games - that I am still more drawn towards Arlovski than Rogers.





'Ruthless' Robbie Lawler vs. Jake Shields
(185lbs/84kg)

Robbie Lawler
16-4-0



+Hard hitter
+Good striker; strings good Muay Thai combinations together
+Very good finisher with damaging ground and pound

-Can get extremely wild when striking
-Sprawl is not top level
-Poor ground game










Jake Shields
22-4-1



+Very good wrestler
+Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt; came 3rd in ADCC 77kg in 2005.
+Never submitted

-Average standup
-Can be passive in dominant positions









Analysis:

Lawler is a hard hitter, and 15 of his 18 wins have come by (T)KO. Jake Shields is a good wrestler riding an 11 fight win streak, and has some great sub defense, and is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but is not an exciting fighter, and can be timid enough when in dominant position. But he is very good at not letting people up, so I think Lawler may be in trouble.

Lawler is a versatile kickboxer, and this all depends on his sprawl. If it stays standing, Lawler is good, but that will be crucial. Shields does have good wrestling credentials, qualifying for the US in the Fila Nationals and World Team Trials in the junior and university men's divisions, and finishing 2nd in the Amateur Athletic Union Freestyle Championships. He also has a bronze medal from ADCC 2005 in the 77kg class.

My Take:

Lawler's sub loss to Miller was not that long ago, in 2006, and Shields is more than capable of doing the same, but I would expect a decision before a submission, in that case.

I would still give Lawler the edge, since his striking is so much better than Shields, and he has a size advantage, but it is a dangerous matchup for Lawler in terms of 'style vs. style.'

Lawler comes in at €1.83 and Shields at €1.91, so betting on Lawler makes sense.